S&P Global forecasts that the expansion of euro‑denominated stablecoins will be propelled primarily by the tokenization of real‑world assets rather than by payment activity.

Euro‑Stablecoin Market Poised for Explosive Growth, Driven by Real‑World Asset Tokenisation, S&P Global Says

By [Your Name]
February 4 2026 – DeFi Pulse

A new rating‑agency report from S&P Global Ratings predicts that euro‑denominated stablecoins could expand anywhere from 800‑fold to 1,600‑fold by the end of the decade. The firm’s baseline scenario forecasts a market worth between €25 billion and €1.1 trillion in 2030, up from roughly €650 million today. Unlike the narrative that stablecoins will primarily serve retail payments, S&P argues that the bulk of the expansion will be fueled by the tokenisation of real‑world assets (RWAs) for investment purposes.

What the Report Shows

S&P’s analysis draws heavily on the experience of US‑dollar stablecoins, where only about 5 % of the roughly $300 billion supply is used for private‑sector payments. Assuming a comparable utilisation pattern for euro‑stablecoins, the agency concludes that the extraordinary increase in supply will largely be “on‑chain settlement liquidity” needed for tokenised assets rather than everyday transactions.

Tokenising Europe’s €28 Trillion Real‑World Asset Market

The European economy holds an estimated €28 trillion in tangible and financial assets—real estate, commodities, infrastructure projects, and corporate debt. S&P notes that even a modest migration of this pool onto blockchain platforms would require hundreds of billions of euros to be held in stablecoins to bridge the gap between traditional custodians and DeFi protocols.

Recent market activity lends weight to this hypothesis. The tokenised gold segment, for example, has surged past the $4 billion mark as spot prices remain high, signalling investor appetite for on‑chain exposure to physical commodities. Similar dynamics could be replicated across other asset classes, turning euro‑stablecoins into the de‑facto settlement currency for a wide array of tokenised securities.

Competitive Landscape

• Circle’s EURC remains the dominant euro‑stablecoin, accounting for ≈ 50 % of the sector’s market cap at around €360 million.
• A handful of other issuers—including European banks and fintech firms—are preparing to launch compliant euro‑stablecoins, emboldened by the EU’s upcoming MiCA (Markets in Crypto‑Assets) framework.
• The report highlights that the current “payments‑first” narrative may be overstated; most volume is expected to flow from institutional investors seeking efficient, programmable exposure to RWAs.

Analyst Takeaways

• Growth Driver: Tokenised investments, not consumer payments, will be the primary engine of euro‑stablecoin adoption.
• Scale Potential: Even the low‑end projection (€25 bn) would represent a ~40‑fold increase over today’s market, while the high‑end scenario pushes the sector into trillion‑euro territory.
• Regulatory Horizon: Clearer EU regulation under MiCA could accelerate issuance, but compliance costs and AML/KYC requirements may shape which issuers succeed.
• Liquidity Requirements: Institutional participants will likely demand robust on‑chain liquidity, prompting the development of deeper euro‑stablecoin markets and ancillary services such as lending, yield‑enhancement, and cross‑chain bridges.
• Risk Considerations: The rapid scaling of stablecoin supply tied to RWAs raises questions about collateral quality, over‑collateralisation ratios, and the resilience of custodial arrangements in volatile market conditions.

Outlook

S&P Global’s projections suggest that the euro‑stablecoin sector is on the cusp of a structural transformation. As tokenisation platforms mature and the EU’s regulatory framework crystallises, euro‑stablecoins could become the preferred medium for settling high‑value, on‑chain asset transactions. Market participants—ranging from traditional banks to DeFi protocols—should monitor developments in RWA tokenisation, liquidity provisioning, and compliance standards, as these factors will likely dictate which stablecoins capture the lion’s share of the anticipated growth.

For a deeper dive into the data and methodology behind S&P’s forecast, see the full rating‑agency report linked below.

Key Takeaways

• Euro‑stablecoins could reach €25 bn–€1.1 tn by 2030, an 800‑1,600× increase.
• RWA tokenisation is identified as the main catalyst; payments will remain a secondary use case.
• A modest shift of Europe’s €28 tn RWA market onto blockchain could lock hundreds of billions of euros in stablecoins.
• Circle’s EURC leads the market today, but competition is expected to intensify under the upcoming MiCA regulations.
• Institutional demand for on‑chain settlement liquidity will shape the ecosystem’s evolution and risk profile.

Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/tradfi-and-fintech/euro-stablecoin-growth-2030-report-s-and-p-global