Bitcoin could fall below $64,000, prompting a seasoned market observer to warn of potential campaign‑selling activity.

Bitcoin May Slide Below $64,000 Amid “Campaign Selling” Claims from Veteran Trader

Crypto News Desk
February 2026 – 08:30 GMT

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a bearish stretch that erased more than a year‑and‑a‑half of gains, sinking over 22 % in the past seven days to trade around $69,000 on Thursday. The rally’s collapse has reignited concerns that the market could see another 10 % correction, potentially breaching the $64,000 mark. The warning comes from veteran market participant Peter Brandt, who describes the current price action as “campaign selling” – a coordinated, sustained off‑loading of BTC by large institutional holders.

Key Takeaways

• “Campaign selling”: Brandt says the market shows signs of deliberate distribution by big players rather than a panic‑driven retail dump.
• Institutional pressure: Bitcoin miners and US spot ETFs have both reduced their net BTC holdings, adding extra supply to an already fragile downtrend.
• Potential support zone: On‑chain analytics point to a near‑term floor between $54,600 and $55,000, while a 10 % decline could bring price to the $63,800–$64,000 region.
• Long‑term outlook: Analysts from CryptoQuant (GugaOnChain) note the price is converging on a historically undervalued band that often precedes a capitulation‑to‑accumulation transition.

Campaign Selling in the Charts

Brandt, widely followed for his chart‑reading expertise, highlighted that Bitcoin’s daily price series now features a classic “lower‑highs, lower‑lows” pattern. The lack of any meaningful rebound after the recent plunge suggests that market participants are not stepping in to buy the dip. In Brandt’s own words, the market bears “the fingerprints of campaign selling”—a term he uses to describe a systematic, purposeful distribution by large institutions, as opposed to scattered retail liquidation.

A screenshot of Brandt’s chart, posted on X, underscores the pattern: a series of descending peaks and troughs that historically precede deeper corrections. The technical setup aligns with a bear flag target around $63,800, which represents roughly a 10 % slide from today’s levels.

On‑Chain Data Reinforces Distribution

Several on‑chain metrics corroborate the narrative of institutional supply pressure:

1. Miner Net Position Change – Glassnode data indicates a clear shift toward net BTC distribution throughout January. Miners have been sending more coins to exchanges, a behavior that typically precedes price weakness.

2. US Spot Bitcoin ETF Balances – Net BTC held across US spot ETFs fell to 1.27 million, down from 1.29 million at the start of the year. The decline reflects a modest but measurable outflow of BTC from custodial funds that originally helped fuel the 2023‑24 rally.

3. Coinbase Premium – The “premium” metric, often used as a proxy for institutional demand on the leading U.S. exchange, slipped to its lowest level in a year. This decline further signals waning institutional appetite.

Collectively, these signals suggest that large‑scale holders are trimming exposure, adding to the downward pressure already present from the price weakness.

Downside Scenario: $64,000‑$55,000 Corridor

Brandt’s bearish projection places the next immediate target near $63,800—a 10 % decline from current levels. Should price breach that threshold, the next technical support lies in a broader zone between $54,600 and $55,000. This lower band coincides with a “red zone” identified by CryptoQuant’s DCA (Dollar‑Cost‑Average) Signal Cycle metric, which tracks one‑week to one‑month realized prices to flag periods when Bitcoin appears structurally undervalued.

GugaOnChain, an on‑chain analyst at CryptoQuant, explained the significance:

“The price’s convergence toward the band that signals the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6 K, suggests we are in the critical transition between capitulation and accumulation.”

The analyst pointed to a historical parallel: in 2022, Bitcoin fell into a similar undervalued band near $20,000, subsequently forming a robust bottom before rallying past $30,000 within a year.

Potential Catalysts and Longer‑Term View

While the present focus is on short‑term price action, some market observers see a longer horizon for Bitcoin accumulation. A separate analysis notes that widening credit spreads—often a sign of stress in broader financial markets—have historically preceded Bitcoin market bottoms. If credit conditions continue to deteriorate, they could create a conducive environment for institutional investors to re‑enter the market, potentially as early as mid‑2026.

Nevertheless, the immediate outlook remains contingent on whether the current distribution phase stabilizes or accelerates. Additional miner sell‑offs or further ETF outflows could deepen the correction, while any sign of renewed buying interest—whether from retail “buy‑the‑dip” activity or a reversal in institutional sentiment—might cap the decline near the $64,000 level.

What Investors Should Watch

Traders and observers are advised to monitor these metrics alongside standard technical levels (e.g., the $63,800 bear‑flag target, the $55,000 support zone) for early signs of a reversal or further downside momentum.

Disclaimer

The content above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any digital asset. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and involve a high degree of risk. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions. CryptoNews does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any data presented.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-may-drop-below-64k-veteran-campaign-selling?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound