Bitcoin Bullish Outlook Targets $75,000 Amid Rising Liquidations and Mixed On‑Chain Signals
February 16 2026 – Cointelegraph
Bitcoin (BTC) entered the new week perched at a pivotal technical juncture. The cryptocurrency closed Sunday’s weekly candle just above the 200‑week exponential moving average (EMA) near $68,800 on Bitstamp, rekindling optimism that a short‑squeeze could propel the price toward the $75,000‑level before the week’s end. At the same time, on‑chain profitability indicators and a surge in liquidation activity suggest that the rally remains fragile.
Technical backdrop
- 200‑week EMA breach – The long‑term EMA, a widely watched trend line, sits at roughly $68,300. Bitcoin’s weekly close above this line is viewed by many traders as a prerequisite for any sustained upside.
- Proximity to the 2021 ATH – The price remains just under the prior all‑time high of $69,000, marking a key resistance zone that could either contain a bounce or trigger a pull‑back.
- Range considerations – Analyst CrypNuevo notes that BTC has been trapped in an extended $69,000‑centric range for most of 2024. A break above the upper band could spark a “surprise recovery,” while a move back to the 50 % wick‑fill level (near $68,000) may signal further downside.
Liquidity landscape
- Elevated liquidation totals – CoinGlass data shows more than $250 million in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, despite BTC trading within a $3,000 range. Both long and short positions have been squeezed, but the net picture favors longs.
- Whale activity – Traders are re‑accumulating long positions just under $68,000, a zone identified by the “CW” account as a potential target for large‑scale holders.
- Short‑side pressure – On Friday, short liquidations peaked at 10,700 BTC, the highest daily figure since September 2024, after BTC briefly breached $70,000 at the opening of the U.S. markets. Bitfinex suggested that if spot demand sustains, the squeeze could signal the end of the recent downtrend.
Macro drivers this week
- U.S. data calendar – With the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday, major economic releases are slated for later in the week. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – and Q4 GDP numbers will be published on Friday.
- Interest‑rate outlook – The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at over 90 % for the March meeting, limiting the likelihood of a policy‑driven rally.
- Volatility expectations – Market observers, including The Kobeissi Letter, warn that geopolitical tensions and lingering macro‑uncertainty could amplify price swings once the data arrives.
On‑chain health checks
| Metric | Current reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) | 0.201 (3‑year high) | Indicates that a sizable portion of BTC holdings are in profit, but the metric is still in the “fear” zone. |
| Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) | 0.996 (below breakeven) | Suggests that coins are being spent at a loss, reminiscent of the capitulation phases seen in 2019 and 2023. |
| Realized price | $55,800 (200‑week SMA convergence) | Serves as a potential support level; a decisive move above it could signal renewed buying pressure. |
CryptoQuant’s analysis emphasizes that the current “investor resilience” will be a decisive factor. While the NUPL spike hints at a profit‑taking environment, the aSOPR lingering beneath 1.0 points to a structural weakness that could evolve into a broader bear market if not corrected soon.
Analyst perspectives
- CrypNuevo (X) – Argues that the price may hover within the $68‑$69k band for the near term, with a breakout to $75,000 possible if sentiment flips. The trader also notes the upcoming U.S. bank holiday could produce atypically low volatility on Monday.
- CW (X) – Highlights that long positions dominate despite recent liquidations, and expects whales to target the sub‑$68k zone for re‑entry.
- Woo Minkyu (CryptoQuant) – Cautions that the aSOPR trajectory mirrors past bear‑market transitions, implying that the present dip might be the start of a longer downtrend rather than a simple corrective pull‑back.
Key takeaways
- Technical catalyst – Breaking and holding above the 200‑week EMA is now a prerequisite for any move toward $75,000.
- Liquidity stress – Over $250 million in liquidations shows that even modest price moves are still forcing traders out of positions, but the net bias remains long‑centric.
- Macro uncertainty – The PCE and GDP releases later this week will be the first major data points after a holiday‑induced lull, likely injecting volatility.
- On‑chain contradictions – Profitability metrics (NUPL) are at multi‑year highs, yet the aSOPR remains below breakeven, suggesting a tension between speculative optimism and underlying market health.
- Potential scenarios
- Bullish: BTC holds above $68,300, triggers a short‑squeeze, and rallies to $75,000, supported by renewed spot demand.
- Neutral: Price oscillates between $66,000 and $70,000 as traders digest upcoming macro data, with liquidation activity tapering.
- Bearish: A decisive break below the 200‑week EMA, accompanied by continued aSOPR sub‑1.0 readings, could push BTC back toward the $55,000‑$60,000 range, mirroring past bear‑market corrections.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s trajectory this week hinges on a blend of technical support, on‑chain fundamentals, and macroeconomic releases. While a short‑term surge to $75,000 remains plausible, the underlying on‑chain signals and lingering liquidation pressure underscore the market’s fragility. Traders should monitor the 200‑week EMA, liquidation heatmaps, and upcoming U.S. data to gauge whether the bullish narrative can sustain itself or if a deeper correction looms.
The information in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/75k-or-bearish-regime-shift-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
