Bitcoin Posts Positive Close in Half of the Last 24 Months – Economist Suggests 88 % Likelihood of Higher Price by December
February 22 2026
Overview
A recent observation by economist Timothy Peterson highlights that Bitcoin (BTC) has closed in the green in 12 of the 24 months spanning January 2024 through December 2025. By applying a simple “positive‑month” metric, Peterson estimates an 88 % probability that the cryptocurrency will be trading above today’s level ten months from now, i.e., by December 2026.
What the Data Shows
- Positive months: In 2025, the digital asset posted gains in January, April, May, June, July and September. The remaining six months ended lower.
- Metric rationale: Peterson counts the number of months with a net gain within any rolling two‑year window. When half of those months are positive, historical patterns, he argues, tend to signal an upward inflection point.
- Current price context: Bitcoin is quoted at roughly $68,200, a drop of about 25 % from its early‑year peak near $80,000.
Market Expectations
- Prediction platforms: On Polymarket, traders assign a 17 % chance to December 2026 being the best month for Bitcoin, trailing November’s 18 % probability.
- Historical seasonality: Since 2013, November has delivered the strongest average return for BTC, around 41 %, according to CoinGlass data.
Divergent Analyst Views
| Analyst | Outlook | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Timothy Peterson (Economist) | 88 % chance of higher price by Dec 2026 | Positive‑month count suggests a statistical inflection. |
| Michael van de Poppe (MN Trading Capital) | Short‑term upside expected | Points to a “massive candle” and a recent streak of five red‑month closes, but sees next week turning green. |
| Peter Brand (Veteran trader) | Bottom not expected until Oct 2026 | Believes broader market pressures will keep BTC depressed for several more months. |
Sentiment Snapshot
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an “Extreme Fear” reading of 9 on Sunday, indicating heightened caution among investors.
- Meanwhile, analytics firm Santiment noted a reduction in the volume of price forecasts circulating on social media, interpreting the “drying up” as a move toward a more neutral sentiment environment.
Analytical Perspective
Peterson’s “50 % positive months” rule is a straightforward statistical filter rather than a sophisticated predictive model. Its strength lies in simplicity: when half of the monthly closes in a two‑year span are up, the odds of a continued climb increase, at least historically. However, several caveats merit attention:
- Sample size – Twelve positive months out of twenty‑four is a minimal threshold; a single month’s swing can substantially alter the probability calculation.
- External drivers – Macro‑economic factors, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption can override seasonal patterns.
- Market volatility – Bitcoin’s price swings of over 10 % in a single day remain common, meaning short‑term forecasts can quickly become obsolete.
The divergent views among seasoned traders underscore the uncertainty. While some see an imminent bounce, others anticipate a deeper trough extending into late 2026. The “Extreme Fear” reading could act as a contrarian signal—historically, fear indices have preceded market rebounds—but the same metric can also reflect genuine downside risk, especially given the proximity of Bitcoin’s price to its 2024‑25 highs.
Key Takeaways
- Statistical edge: A 50 % positive‑month ratio in the past two years translates to an 88 % statistical chance of a higher price by the end of 2026, per Peterson’s analysis.
- Seasonality matters: November remains the historically strongest month for Bitcoin, with average gains exceeding 40 %.
- Mixed analyst sentiment: Short‑term optimism from some traders clashes with longer‑term bearish expectations from others.
- Investor mood: The “Extreme Fear” index suggests caution, yet a decline in price‑prediction chatter may indicate a shift toward neutral sentiment.
- Price level: At ~ $68,200, Bitcoin is trading well below its February 2026 start‑of‑year level, leaving room for upside if the positive‑month trend holds.
Investors should monitor the evolving monthly close data, sentiment indices, and macro‑economic indicators to gauge whether the statistical probability identified by Peterson materializes into tangible price appreciation.
Disclaimer: The information herein reflects public data and analyst opinions available at the time of publication. It does not constitute financial advice.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-uptrend-economist-forecast-december?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
