Spot Bitcoin ETF Demand Slows Down in 2026: Here’s Why
By Crypto Market Desk – February 23 2026
Overview
The United States spot‑bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) are on track for a fourth straight month of net outflows as Bitcoin (BTC) records its fifth consecutive negative monthly close in February. The retreat is evident in shrinking asset‑under‑management (AUM) figures and a deteriorating flow profile when benchmarked against competing commodity ETFs, most notably gold.
Recent Flow Dynamics
- Seven‑day snapshot (Feb 12‑19): 11,042 BTC left spot‑bitcoin ETFs, equivalent to roughly $735 million at current prices. The biggest single‑day outflow occurred on Feb 12, when 6,120 BTC (about $416 million) were withdrawn.
- Positive days: Only two of the eight trading sessions posted inflows, with the February 6 session adding 5,900 BTC. Analysts note that three consecutive positive days are typically required to signal a genuine reversal in ETF accumulation.
- Cumulative picture: Since July 2025, net inflows have totaled just $5 billion, down sharply from the $63 billion all‑time high. Net assets peaked near $170 billion in October 2025 and have fallen to $84.3 billion as of mid‑February 2026.
The total BTC held across spot‑bitcoin ETFs now stands at roughly 1.26 million BTC, a decline from the 1.36 million‑BTC peak observed in late 2025.
Fund‑Specific Withdrawals
The largest providers have also seen notable reductions:
| ETF | BTC holdings (Oct 2025) | BTC holdings (Feb 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock IBIT | 806,000 | 759,000 | –6 % |
| Fidelity FBTC | 213,000 | 186,000 | –12.6 % |
These sell‑offs add to the overall supply pressure on the spot market, which has struggled to absorb the outflows.
Gold ETFs Capture the Capital Shift
A rolling 90‑day flow comparison highlights a clear pivot toward gold:
- Bitcoin: After peaking at $16 billion of inflows in March 2024, the Bitcoin‑ETF stream fell to $3‑4 billion mid‑year and turned negative in early 2025. By February 2026, the 90‑day net flow remained in the red.
- Gold: Gold ETFs moved from a prolonged negative phase (until July 2024) to a sustained inflow surge, reaching $30 billion in April 2025 and $36 billion in October 2025. In early 2026, gold’s 90‑day inflows hovered around $21‑29 billion.
The data suggest investors are gravitating to gold’s lower volatility and longer track record during risk‑off periods, siphoning capital that might otherwise have supported Bitcoin‑ETF demand.
Macro‑Economic Context
Benjamin Cowen of ITC Crypto describes the first quarter of 2026 as a “late‑cycle restrictive digestion” for both equities and crypto assets. Key factors influencing the slowdown include:
- Monetary stance: Although the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening in December 2025, policy remains tight. The federal funds rate stays above the two‑year Treasury yield, while the 10‑year Treasury yields sit near 4.1 % with real yields of 1.7‑1.8 %.
- Opportunity cost: Positive real yields make fixed‑income assets more attractive, raising the cost of holding non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin. Historically, robust ETF inflows have coincided with falling real yields or clear easing cycles—conditions that have not yet materialised.
- Price momentum: Bitcoin’s price decline outpaced the reduction in ETF balances, indicating that spot‑market demand is insufficient to offset the broader sell‑pressure.
Analyst Takeaways
- Continued outflows: Spot‑bitcoin ETFs have entered a net‑outflow phase that could persist unless Bitcoin price stabilises or macro conditions become more accommodative.
- Gold as a safe‑haven alternative: Gold ETF inflows have consistently risen when Bitcoin ETF demand wanes, reinforcing gold’s role as the preferred hedge during periods of heightened uncertainty.
- Monetary policy as a driver: Elevated real yields are a primary deterrent for investors seeking yield‑bearing assets, diminishing the appeal of Bitcoin’s non‑income‑generating nature.
- Threshold for reversal: Analysts such as Axel Adler Jr. suggest that at least three consecutive days of net inflows are required to signal a genuine turnover in sentiment. So far, the market has not met this benchmark.
- Potential catalyst: Any future easing of the Fed’s restrictive stance—or a sustained rally in Bitcoin price—could reignite ETF inflows, echoing past cycles where lower yields preceded capital inflows into crypto‑related products.
Bottom Line
The convergence of a bearish Bitcoin price trajectory, a tight monetary environment, and a compelling alternative in gold has led to a pronounced slowdown in spot‑bitcoin ETF demand in early 2026. While short‑term outflows are evident, the longer‑term outlook hinges on macro‑policy shifts and price dynamics that could restore investor confidence in Bitcoin‑ETF vehicles.
Note: This piece is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/are-bitcoin-etfs-quietly-accumulating-or-just-not-selling-the-flow-data-that-matters?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
