ETH Downtrend May Not Be Over – $1,500 Could Be the Next Resistance
February 24 2026
Ethereum’s native token (ETH) slipped beneath the $1,900 mark during Asian trading on Tuesday, extending a 30‑day slide that has now erased roughly 38 % of its value. The dip follows a spate of negative market sentiment after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs that rattled crypto investors. A confluence of on‑chain metrics, technical patterns and institutional flow data suggests the bearish pressure could persist, with the next major price target hovering around $1,500.
Key Takeaways
- Realized price under pressure: ETH is trading below its realized price and well under the average cost basis of $2,380, a historically bearish configuration that often foreshadows further downside.
- Moving‑average crossover pending: The 50‑week EMA ($3,017) remains just above the 100‑week EMA ($2,920). In prior bear markets, the crossover of these long‑term averages has marked the end of a downtrend, implying the current rally may not be confirmed until the 50‑week line moves beneath the 100‑week line.
- Bear flag pattern on daily chart: Technical analysis points to a descending “bear flag” that, if completed, could drive ETH toward the $1,400‑$1,500 corridor, with some models even projecting a low of $1,100.
- Coinbase premium at multi‑year lows: The ETH price on Coinbase is trading at a modest discount to Binance (‑0.09 premium), echoing the deep negative premiums seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation.
- Institutional outflows continue: U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have logged five consecutive weeks of net redemptions, the longest streak since April 2025, with $1.3 billion withdrawn in total and $123 million exiting last week alone.
On‑Chain Stress: Realized Price Below Spot
The realized price—an on‑chain metric that reflects the average cost at which ETH was last moved—has slipped beneath the current market price, now sitting near $1,830. When the realized price exceeds the spot price, it typically acts as a psychological ceiling, leaving a sizable chunk of holders “underwater.” Historically, drops beneath this threshold have signalled capitulation phases. For example, a similar breach in June 2022 preceded a 45 % crash triggered by the Terra‑Luna fallout, while an August 2018 dip preceded a 77 % plunge.
Technical Landscape: Moving Averages and Chart Patterns
Long‑term trend analysis shows the 50‑week exponential moving average (EMA) still perched just above the 100‑week EMA. In prior cycles (2018, 2022), ETH did not establish a definitive bottom until the shorter‑term EMA slipped below the longer‑term line. The current proximity suggests the market could continue descending until that crossover occurs.
On the daily timeframe, a classic bear‑flag formation has emerged after the token broke key support levels. Trader BitBull (aka “AkaBull”) highlighted the pattern on X, stating the “final target is $1,400‑$1,500.” If the flag fails, the downside could extend toward $1,100, a figure supported by declining on‑chain activity and waning institutional interest.
Market Sentiment: Premiums and ETF Flows
The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index—tracking the price differential between Coinbase and Binance—has settled at a modest –0.09, close to the 3½‑year low observed earlier this year. A negative premium of this magnitude typically indicates robust selling pressure from U.S. retail participants. The last time the 30‑day simple moving average of the premium reached comparable depths was during the steepest phase of the 2022 bear market.
Simultaneously, institutional investors are pulling back. Spot Ethereum exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have recorded net outflows for five straight weeks, the longest run since early 2025. According to SoSoValue, investors have withdrawn roughly $1.3 billion from these products, with $123 million exiting in the most recent week. Global Ethereum‑linked investment vehicles have also logged outflows exceeding $36 million, adding further weight to the bearish narrative.
Outlook
While a short‑term bounce remains possible if price action recovers above the 50‑week EMA, the convergence of on‑chain weakness, technical bearishness, and sustained institutional outflows suggests that ETH’s next meaningful support may not be reached until the market re‑establishes a healthier cost‑basis equilibrium. Analysts watching the bear flag anticipate a decisive move toward the $1,400‑$1,500 window, with a lower bound near $1,100 if the pattern fails.
Investors should monitor several near‑term signals:
- Realized price vs. spot: Continued divergence reinforces downside risk.
- EMA crossover: A break of the 50‑week EMA below the 100‑week EMA would confirm a deeper bear market.
- Premium dynamics: Persistent negative Coinbase premiums signal ongoing U.S. sell pressure.
- ETF flow trends: Prolonged outflows could deter institutional support, keeping bearish sentiment alive.
As always, market participants are reminded that cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and subject to rapid change. Conducting thorough due diligence and maintaining appropriate risk management practices remain essential.
The information presented herein does not constitute investment advice. Readers should perform their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-price-drops-1-8k-data-eth-bears-not-done-yet?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
