XRP Stays Under $1.40 as Over 60 % of Its Circulating Supply Is Unrealized‑Losses
Monday, 9 March 2026 – 09:00 GMT
The XRP/USD pair is trading around $1.35, keeping the token well below the $1.40 resistance level that many analysts view as a short‑term ceiling. The price lies 28 % lower than its opening level for 2026 ($1.87) and marks a 63 % retreat from the July 2025 peak of $3.66. The sustained weakness has driven a large share of the token’s supply into negative territory, raising concerns about the health of the market and investor sentiment.
Massive Unrealized Losses
According to on‑chain analytics firm Glassnode, roughly 36.8 billion XRP—more than 60 % of the circulating supply—are currently held at a loss. At today’s price, these positions represent about $50 billion in unrealized losses. The average cost basis for long‑term holders sits near $1.44, meaning the spot price is already below the collective entry price for many investors.
Chart: Share of XRP in loss (Glassnode)
The disparity between the market price and holders’ average cost points to mounting pressure on the token’s long‑term backers, a dynamic that could influence short‑term price action as participants decide whether to hold, accumulate, or liquidate positions.
Spot‑ETF Outflows Add to the Bearish Tone
Data from SoSoValue shows that investment products linked to XRP are experiencing net withdrawals for the second day in a row. $22.8 million left spot‑ETF vehicles over the past 48 hours, with $16.2 million recorded on Friday—the heftiest redemption since late January, when a $93 million outflow was reported.
In parallel, broader XRP‑related investment products recorded over $30 million of net outflows in the week ending 6 March, further underscoring a “risk‑off” environment among institutional and retail investors alike.
Chart: Spot‑ETF flow dynamics (SoSoValue)
Technical Landscape: Levels to Watch
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $1.40 | Upper boundary of the current trading range; also the 200‑week simple moving average (SMA). Breaking above could open a path toward $1.60‑$1.95. |
| $1.30 | Immediate support. Holding this level is crucial for preventing a slide to lower zones. |
| $1.27 | Recent low (28 Feb). A breach could trigger a move toward the February 6 trough at $1.13, which aligns with the 200‑week exponential moving average (EMA). |
| $1.44 | Average holder cost basis. Trading below this mark intensifies pressure on long‑term holders. |
Analysts at CryptoPulse note that the price is currently testing the bottom of its range. “A decisive bounce off the $1.30‑$1.27 zone could see XRP retake the upper band of the range,” they wrote on X. “If that support fails, the structure shifts and lower targets become realistic.”
The UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) from Glassnode shows that a sizable chunk of XRP was accumulated around the $1.28 billion level, which coincides with the 200‑week SMA. This adds a psychological layer to the $1.40 hurdle: it is both a technical and a historically relevant price region for many investors.
Outlook
If the token manages to stay above $1.30 and recovers the $1.40 barrier, bullish scenarios projected by Cointelegraph suggest a rally to $1.60, with a longer‑term upside potential toward $1.95. However, the current combination of heavy unrealized losses, outflows from spot ETFs, and a price below the average cost basis creates a fragile backdrop. A break below $1.27 could reopen a path to the $1.13 low and potentially trigger further selling pressure.
Key Takeaways
- Price positioning: XRP is trading near $1.35, 63 % below its July 2025 high and 28 % under the 2026 yearly open.
- Supply under water: More than 60 % of the circulating supply—about 36.8 billion XRP—are in loss, translating to roughly $50 billion of unrealized deficits.
- Investor sentiment: Spot‑ETF products tied to XRP have seen $22.8 million of net outflows over the past two days, indicating growing risk aversion.
- Technical thresholds: Immediate support sits at $1.30; a breach could expose the token to the $1.13 low, while a rebound above $1.40 may unlock a move toward $1.60‑$1.95.
- Cost‑basis pressure: The current market price is below the average holder cost basis of $1.44, adding stress to long‑term investors.
The information presented here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/xrp-holders-face-50b-unrealized-losses-price-below-1-40?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
