Arthur Hayes Says He’d Pass on Bitcoin for Now – Waiting for a Shift in U.S. Monetary Policy
March 11 2026
BitMEX co‑founder and long‑time Bitcoin bull Arthur Hayes, who has repeatedly forecast a $250,000 price target for the cryptocurrency by the end of 2026, told the Coin Stories podcast on Tuesday that he would not allocate even a single dollar to Bitcoin at the present moment. Hayes said his decision is driven by the ongoing geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran and, more importantly, by the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
Why Hayes Is Holding Back
Hayes explained that the longer the current conflict drags on, the greater the probability that the Federal Reserve will be forced to expand the money supply to finance U.S. military commitments. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I put it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” he said. He added that his entry point will be tied to a clear easing of monetary policy:
“That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin – when the central banks start printing money.”
In other words, Hayes is looking for a measurable shift in the Fed’s stance—whether through rate cuts, a pause in balance‑sheet reductions, or direct quantitative easing—before he resumes buying.
The War‑vs‑Money‑Printing Debate
While some market participants argue that a large‑scale conflict can act as a catalyst for Bitcoin by prompting capital flight into “digital gold,” Hayes contends that the primary driver for the crypto asset is money creation, not the war itself. He warned that prolonged hostilities could trigger a massive sell‑off across equities and crypto, potentially dragging Bitcoin below $60,000. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $69,900, roughly 45 % below its October 2025 peak of $126,000.
Market Context
- Price dynamics: Bitcoin briefly slipped below the $60,000 mark on February 6 before stabilising and entering a modest uptrend.
- Analyst contrast: Other voices in the community, such as analyst Michaël van de Poppe, are more optimistic, citing a recent surge in the Nasdaq and suggesting limited upside uncertainty for Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term.
- Long‑term outlook: Hayes maintains that years where Bitcoin trades below $100,000 will become rarer, aligning with his $250,000 forecast for 2026.
Key Takeaways
| Point | Implication |
|---|---|
| Hayes’ stance: He will not buy Bitcoin until the Fed visibly eases monetary policy. | Signals a cautious, macro‑driven entry strategy for a high‑profile market figure. |
| Geopolitical risk: Ongoing US‑Iran tensions could pressure both equity and crypto markets. | Investors may see heightened volatility and potential downside pressure on Bitcoin. |
| Money‑printing view: Hayes believes inflationary monetary stimulus, not war, will ultimately benefit Bitcoin. | Highlights the importance of tracking Fed actions rather than purely geopolitical narratives. |
| Price trajectory: Bitcoin sits ~45 % below its recent all‑time high; a breach of $60,000 could trigger further liquidations. | Short‑term price support levels remain fragile; technical traders should watch liquidity zones. |
| Long‑term projection: $250,000 target for 2026 remains unchanged. | Despite short‑term caution, Hayes retains a bullish long‑term thesis, implying potential for large upside if macro conditions improve. |
Outlook
Hayes’ remarks underscore a broader theme in the cryptocurrency space: many investors are anchoring their Bitcoin exposure decisions to macroeconomic policy rather than price action alone. Should the Federal Reserve adopt a more accommodative stance—whether through rate cuts, a halt to balance‑sheet runoff, or direct monetary expansion—Hayes and likely other institutional players could re‑enter the market, potentially accelerating the price rally toward his $250,000 target.
Until then, market participants should monitor both Fed policy minutes and developments in the US‑Iran conflict, as each could shape Bitcoin’s near‑term trajectory.
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Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoiner-arthur-hayes-hesitant-buying-btc-federal-reserve-monetary-stance?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
