Bitcoin‑to‑Gold Ratio Hits Record Low – Analysts Say It May Be the Best Buying Window Since 2017
The BTC/XAU Z‑score fell to a historic trough in January 2026, a level that historically preceded some of Bitcoin’s most dramatic rallies. While several market strategists see a “gold‑to‑bitcoin” rotation on the horizon, others warn that the shift could be slower than expected.
Key Takeaways
- Historic undervaluation: The Bitcoin‑to‑gold (BTC/XAU) ratio reached its lowest reading ever after adjusting for global money supply, echoing the extreme value recorded in 2015 that preceded an 11,800 % price surge.
- Analyst optimism: Certain commentators argue the current market presents a better entry point than the pre‑2017 bull run, citing potential capital flows from gold back into Bitcoin.
- Contrasting views: Some experts caution that a rapid rotation may not materialise, noting Bitcoin’s recent 18 % decline versus gold’s 100 % gain over the past year.
- On‑chain support: Long‑term Bitcoin holders have begun rebuilding their positions, a pattern that in prior cycles foreshadowed durable price recoveries.
1. The BTC‑Gold Ratio at an Extreme
Data released by Bitwise Europe shows the Z‑score of the Bitcoin‑to‑gold ratio slipping to –2, the deepest negative zone recorded to date. The metric, which compares Bitcoin’s price to gold after normalising for global money supply, has historically hovered near this boundary ahead of major market bottoms. The last time it breached a comparable level was in 2015, a period that set the stage for a meteoric climb that took Bitcoin from roughly $165 to $20,000 within two years.
2. Why Some See a Better Opportunity Than 2017
Michaël van de Poppe, a crypto analyst with a sizable following on X, tweeted that the present moment “represents a better opportunity to be buying Bitcoin than 2017.” His view reflects a broader sentiment among a few market observers who expect investors to start reallocating funds from precious metals to digital assets once the price disparity widens sufficiently.
André Dragosch, head of research for Bitwise Europe, and Pav Hundal, lead analyst at the Australian exchange Swyftx, echo this optimism. Both suggest that a measurable shift of capital from gold into Bitcoin could begin as early as February or March, driven by the relative weakness of BTC against the metal.
3. Skeptics Warn Against a Quick Rotation
Not all voices share this bullish outlook. Analyst Benjamin Cowen contends that Bitcoin’s downtrend may persist longer than many anticipate, pointing to the cryptocurrency’s tendency to bleed against equities in a risk‑off environment. He argues that expectations of a “massive rotation” out of gold and silver could be premature, especially given the continued strength of precious metals.
In line with this, major financial institutions remain bullish on gold. Citi projects that silver could keep advancing on the back of strong demand from China and a weaker US dollar, while RBC Capital Markets forecasts gold reaching $7,000 per ounce by the close of 2026. Such forecasts reinforce the view that gold may retain its appeal as a safe‑haven asset for the foreseeable future.
4. On‑Chain Indicators Suggest a Bottom Forming
Regardless of the macro debate, on‑chain metrics paint a nuanced picture. Data from CheckOnChain shows that Bitcoin’s “Long‑Term Holders” (addresses keeping BTC for more than 155 days) started to increase their holdings during January’s sell‑off, while the “LTH Spent Binary” indicator—measuring whether these holders are net sellers—has been trending downward.
Historical analysis indicates that a resurgence of long‑term holder supply, paired with a declining spent binary, often precedes durable price bottoms. A recent case in point was the rebound after the April 2025 low, where the rebuilding of long‑term holdings was followed by a roughly 60 % price jump within a month.
5. What the Market Might See Next
- Short‑term outlook: If the BTC/XAU ratio remains in the extreme negative zone and gold prices continue their upward trajectory, some investors may view Bitcoin as an undervalued alternative, prompting modest inflows.
- Medium‑term scenario: A sustained rotation would likely require a broader risk‑on sentiment reviving Bitcoin’s correlation with equities, something many analysts deem uncertain at present.
- Long‑term perspective: The re‑accumulation of Bitcoin by long‑term holders could provide a foundation for future upside, especially if the ratio eventually normalises and the cryptocurrency regains its status as a store‑of‑value challenger.
Bottom Line
The record‑low Bitcoin‑to‑gold ratio has reignited the debate over whether the crypto market is presenting its most compelling buying opportunity since the pre‑2017 rally. While a segment of analysts anticipate capital shifting from gold to Bitcoin in the coming months, dissenting voices highlight persistent macro‑economic pressures that could delay or dampen such a move. Meanwhile, on‑chain data suggests that patient investors are already positioning themselves for a potential rebound, a pattern that has historically been a harbinger of price recoveries. As always, market participants should conduct thorough due diligence and consider the full spectrum of risks before allocating capital.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-vs-gold-btc-better-opportunity-than-2017?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
