Analyst Attributes Sharp Fall in Public XRPL Metrics to New Institutional Trading Feature – Could It Weigh on XRP’s Price?
Image: The XRP Ledger (XRPL) network
“Public‑facing numbers have plunged 50‑80 % in a matter of weeks, but the story may be more about where the traffic is moving than about a collapse in demand.” – Market watcher Arthur
Public‑Facing Activity on the XRP Ledger Declines Rapidly
On Feb. 23, a thread on X (formerly Twitter) from analyst known as Arthur highlighted a dramatic contraction in the XRP Ledger’s publicly observable statistics.
| Metric (public tracker) | Recent level | Prior level (≈ weeks earlier) |
|---|---|---|
| Active user tags | ~38 k | >200 k |
| Daily payment volume | ~80 M XRP | >2.5 B XRP |
| Unique sending accounts | ~3 k | >40 k |
Arthur described the numbers as “bad,” noting the steep 50‑80 % drop across the board. The data sparked a debate among the community: is the XRPL losing relevance, or are the figures simply not capturing the full picture?
Institutional Trading Feature (XLS‑81) Offers One Explanation
On Feb. 18 the Ripple network activated XLS‑81, a permissioned decentralized exchange (DEX) designed for regulated participants. Unlike the open‑public DEX, XLS‑81 routes trades through private “pools” that do not appear on the usual on‑chain explorers.
Arthur argues that the newly enabled private pools have siphoned a substantial portion of institutional volume away from the publicly tracked endpoints, creating an illusion of reduced activity. He added that the surge in on‑chain activity seen in late 2025 was largely driven by retail users, while institutional actors may now be executing transactions behind the scenes.
Price Reaction and Market Sentiment
At the time of writing XRP trades around $1.39, reflecting:
- ‑2 % over the previous 24 hours
- ‑5 % over the past week
- ‑27 % over the last month
The token has slipped more than 46 % in the past 12 months and sits roughly 60 % below its July 2025 peak of $3.65.
A separate X post from the same analyst dismissed viral price forecasts – such as a claim that XRP could hit $15 by early March and $70 by May – emphasizing that liquidity constraints and broader macro conditions are far more decisive than social‑media hype.
Additional On‑Chain Signals
- Large‑holder movements: Pseudonymous analyst Darkfost reported that over 31 million XRP (about $45 million at current prices) shifted into Binance wallets in a single day, indicating potential sell‑pressure if the tokens are dumped on the market.
- Realized loss spikes: Data firm Santiment flagged the biggest realized‑loss spike for XRP since 2022 after the price fell from roughly $3.60 to near $1.10 earlier this month. Historically similar spikes preceded a 114 % price rally within eight months, though Santiment cautioned against assuming a repeat.
- Valuation ratios: Santiment’s MVRV (Market‑Value‑to‑Realized‑Value) metric places XRP at ‑4.1 %, marginally less undervalued than Ethereum (‑14.3 %) and Bitcoin (‑6.9 %). The ratio suggests that a modest portion of holders are still in profit, but the majority are at a loss relative to their acquisition cost.
Comparative Landscape
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways in recent weeks, according to Darkfost, limiting directional cues for altcoins. In such a neutral BTC environment, shifts in XRPL activity or sentiment can have an outsized influence on XRP’s short‑term price trajectory.
Analyst Takeaways
| Takeaway | Implication |
|---|---|
| Public metrics are not the whole story – The activation of XLS‑81 likely moved a sizable share of institutional trades off the public ledger, masking true network usage. | Market observers should incorporate private‑flow data (e.g., exchange inflows, OTC desk reports) when assessing XRPL health. |
| Price remains sensitive to on‑chain supply dynamics – Large movements into centralized exchanges could translate into downward pressure if holders decide to liquidate. | Traders may watch exchange wallets and over‑the‑counter activity for early signs of selling pressure. |
| Historical loss spikes have preceded rallies, but not guaranteed – Santiment’s past pattern does not ensure a repeat, especially given current macro‑economic headwinds. | Investors should treat loss‑spike signals as one factor among many, not a standalone buy signal. |
| Macro and liquidity factors outweigh social hype – Aggressive price predictions lack grounding in market fundamentals. | Caution is advised when evaluating social‑media forecasts; fundamental data provides a more reliable barometer. |
Outlook
If institutional volume is indeed shifting to private pools, the apparent dip in public XRPL statistics may have limited impact on the network’s long‑term utility. However, the lingering sell‑pressure from large holders and the broader crypto market’s sideways stance could keep XRP’s price under pressure in the near term.
Stakeholders are encouraged to monitor a combination of on‑chain public data, private‑flow indicators (exchange inflows/outflows, OTC desk activity), and macro‑economic developments when forming a view on XRP’s trajectory.
For further reading, see the analyst’s original X thread here and the Santiment report on realized loss spikes.
Source: https://cryptopotato.com/xrpl-metrics-drop-50-80-analyst-explains-why-and-can-it-hurt-xrps-price/
