Bitcoin Shows Signs of “Full Capitulation” as Price Slides Below $69,000
Thursday, 23 February 2026 – 09:00 UTC
Bitcoin (BTC) fell beneath the $69,000 threshold on Thursday, marking its lowest level since early November 2024. The dip sparked a surge of selling from short‑term investors and pushed several market‑sentiment gauges into extreme‑fear territory, prompting a number of analysts to argue that the cryptocurrency is undergoing a full capitulation and may be nearing a technical bottom.
Market activity
- Price movement – BTC slipped to just under $69 k, a drop that erased the gains of the 15‑month bull run that began in late 2024.
- Exchange inflows – Data from CryptoQuant show that roughly 60 000 BTC (about $4.2 billion at current rates) left short‑term holders’ wallets and were transferred to exchanges within a 24‑hour window – the largest net inflow of the year.
- Realized losses – Glassnode reported that the seven‑day simple moving average of realized losses on Bitcoin rose above $1.26 billion per day, indicating that investors are selling at a loss on an unprecedented scale for this cycle.
The combination of heavy exchange inflows and a spike in realized losses points to a pronounced shift in market positioning. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost described the situation on X as “a full capitulation,” noting that long‑term holders (LTHs) have not moved any profitable positions, leaving only loss‑making traders to supply sell pressure.
Sentiment gauges
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index – The index, which tracks overall sentiment across the crypto ecosystem, registered a score of 12 on Thursday, classifying the market as being in “extreme fear.” The last time the index hit a comparable level was on 22 July 2022, a period that preceded Bitcoin’s bottom at $15.5 k and the subsequent rally.
- Investor sentiment – Santiment’s sentiment ratio has turned sharply negative, reflecting a broadly bearish stance among retail participants. Nevertheless, some analysts point to the fear reading as a potential catalyst for a short‑term relief rally if small‑scale traders continue to panic‑sell.
Technical oversold conditions
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) – Across multiple time frames the RSI is well into oversold territory. On the 12‑hour chart the RSI sits at 18, on the daily chart at 20, and on the four‑hour chart at 23. Weekly and hourly measurements remain below the 30‑level threshold that historically signals market exhaustion.
- Historical context – The weekly RSI value of 29 is the lowest reading since the 2022 bear market, a period that also witnessed a pronounced capitulation phase. Crypto‑focused analyst CryptoXLARGE noted that these levels mirror the “most oversold” condition observed after the FTX collapse, a point at which buying opportunities have traditionally emerged.
Analyst commentary
| Analyst / Platform | Main points |
|---|---|
| Darkfost (CryptoQuant) | Describes the current sell‑off as “full capitulation” with no profitable BTC being moved by long‑term holders. |
| Glassnode | Highlights a spike in realized losses and a second‑largest capitulation metric reading in two years, often coinciding with heightened volatility and de‑risking. |
| Davie Satoshi | Argues that “extreme fear” levels historically precede buying opportunities and suggests accumulation. |
| Santiment | Warns of extremely bearish sentiment but views it as a possible catalyst for a short‑term bounce if panic continues. |
| CryptoXLARGE | Points out that Bitcoin is now the most oversold asset since the 2022 downturn, indicating that fear may be peaking. |
Collectively, these viewpoints suggest that while the market is experiencing severe pressure, a large‑scale sell‑off may be exhausting itself, potentially setting the stage for a modest rebound.
Outlook
The convergence of record exchange inflows, a steep rise in realized losses, an “extreme fear” sentiment reading, and oversold technical indicators creates a classic capitulation profile. Historically, such conditions have preceded short‑term relief rallies and, in some cases, the start of longer‑term recoveries. However, analysts caution that the current environment remains volatile, and any bounce could be limited if broader macro‑economic pressures persist.
Key takeaways
- Short‑term holders liquidated ~60 k BTC (≈ $4.2 bn) in the past 24 hours, driving fresh selling pressure.
- Realized loss metrics reached over $1.26 bn per day, the highest level of this cycle.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12, a reading last seen before the July 2022 bottom.
- RSI readings are deep in oversold territory across most time frames, the most extreme since the 2022 bear market.
- Several analysts interpret the extreme fear and technical oversold signals as a possible market bottom, but emphasize the need for caution given prevailing volatility.
The information presented is for editorial purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct independent research before making any trading or investment decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/three-signs-bitcoin-price-near-full-capitulation?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
