Bitcoin’s Odds of Hitting $90,000 by March Remain Below 10%
Weak macro data, AI‑related capital‑expenditure worries and heightened market risk‑aversion keep the flagship cryptocurrency entrenched near its lowest level in over a year.
Quick Takeaways
- Price action: Bitcoin slipped beneath the $63,000 mark on Thursday, its lowest price since November 2024.
- Probability of a $90 k rally: Options pricing on Deribit suggests roughly a 6 % chance of the digital asset reaching $90,000 by the end of March.
- Put‑option signal: A March $50,000 put trades at a premium that translates to about a 20 % probability of a deeper correction.
- Drivers of the sell‑off: Deteriorating U.S. employment figures, soaring AI‑related capital spending, and renewed worries about quantum‑computing threats to crypto security.
- Corporate exposure risk: Public firms that hold sizable Bitcoin balances—most notably MicroStrategy and Japan’s Metaplanet—are under pressure as their market values sit below acquisition costs, raising the specter of forced sales.
Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) lost ground on Thursday, breaking the $63,000 threshold and erasing roughly 30 % of the gains recorded since the failed push past $90,500 on Jan. 28. The drop extends a bearish trend that has been reinforced by two primary macro‑economic developments.
First, the latest U.S. jobs report showed a sharp rise in layoffs, with 108,435 positions eliminated in January—more than double the figure posted at the same time a year earlier. The surge marks the highest January layoff count since the aftermath of the 2008‑09 financial crisis, feeding broader concerns about consumer spending and economic momentum.
Second, the technology sector is grappling with escalating AI‑related capital expenditures. Google disclosed that its 2026 cap‑ex budget will exceed $180 billion, up from $91.5 billion the previous year. The surge in spending is straining supply chains for high‑bandwidth memory and other components, leading firms such as Qualcomm to temper growth guidance. The ripple effect is a more cautious risk appetite among investors who view the AI boom as a potential source of future volatility rather than an immediate catalyst.
Together, these factors have pushed risk‑averse capital out of the cryptocurrency market, dragging Bitcoin lower.
What the Options Market Is Signalling
Deribit, the leading crypto‑derivatives platform, provides a transparent barometer of market expectations through its options chain. The price of a March 27 call contract with a $90,000 strike stood at $522 on Thursday. When fed into the Black‑Scholes pricing model, this premium corresponds to just under a 6 % probability that Bitcoin will breach the $90,000 level before the contract expires.
Conversely, a $50,000 put for the same expiry trades at $1,380, indicating investors assign a roughly 20 % chance of a deeper, sub‑$50,000 correction. The disparity between the call and put premiums underscores a market consensus that the upside is increasingly constrained while downside risk remains material.
Additional Headwinds
Quantum‑Computing Concerns
Recent commentary from Jefferies’ global head of equity strategy, Christopher Wood, flagged the prospect that future quantum computers could jeopardize the cryptographic foundations of Bitcoin. While the technical feasibility remains speculative, the narrative has already prompted some institutional investors to scale back exposure, as illustrated by Wood’s decision to cut a 10 % Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio.
Corporate Balance‑Sheet Stress
Companies that have taken sizable Bitcoin positions on their balance sheets are feeling the pressure. MicroStrategy, the largest publicly listed holder of on‑chain BTC, saw its enterprise value dip to $53.3 billion, below the $54.2 billion cost basis of its Bitcoin holdings. Similarly, Japan’s Metaplanet, which raised capital through Bitcoin‑backed debt, now faces a valuation gap of almost $1 billion. In a prolonged bear market, these firms could be compelled to liquidate assets to meet financing obligations, adding further downward pressure.
Correlated Asset Weakness
The slowdown is not limited to crypto. Silver, the second‑largest tradable metal by market cap, fell 36 % over the past week after hitting an all‑time high of $121.70 on Jan. 29. The broader risk‑off sentiment is echoed in equity markets, with tech‑heavy names such as Thomson Reuters, PayPal, Robinhood, and AppLovin all posting double‑digit declines parallel to Bitcoin’s 27 % weekly slide.
Outlook
With Bitcoin hovering around $62,300, the combination of macro‑economic uncertainty, AI‑induced capital strain, and emerging security concerns makes a rapid return to the $90,000 level appear increasingly unlikely.
Unless there is a decisive shift in U.S. employment data or a clear resolution to the AI supply‑chain bottlenecks, the market is likely to remain in a defensive posture. Traders and investors should monitor upcoming economic releases, corporate earnings of crypto‑exposed firms, and any developments in quantum‑computing research that could alter the risk calculus.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/will-bitcoin-rebound-to-dollar90k-by-march-here-s-what-btc-options-say?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
