Hyperliquid Could Reach $150 by Mid‑2026, Says BitMEX Co‑Founder Arthur Hayes
Hayes points to a shift of derivatives volume from centralized exchanges, an expanding macro‑asset product line and a supportive token‑buy‑back model as the main drivers of a possible five‑fold price rally for HYPE.
Key Takeaways
- CEX‑to‑DEX migration: Hayes argues that if Hyperliquid continues to siphon derivatives trading away from centralized exchanges (CEX) and broadens its offering, the HYPE token could climb from roughly $30 today to $150 by August 2026.
- Revenue target: Achieving this scenario would require Hyperliquid’s 30‑day annualised revenue run‑rate to grow to about $1.4 billion, up from $843 million recorded in March.
- Macro‑linked demand: The platform’s oil‑linked perpetual (CL‑USDC) recently out‑performed ETH‑USDC in daily volume, underscoring growing trader interest in non‑crypto assets.
- HIP‑3 incentive model: The permissionless perpetual launch mechanism, which can be funded by staking HYPE, now accounts for roughly 10 % of Hyperliquid’s revenue and may add another 160 % growth if more commodity and index products are added.
- Technical outlook: A cup‑and‑handle formation on the daily HYPE/USD chart suggests a near‑term breakout target near $50, a step toward the longer‑term $150 horizon.
Derivatives Volume Shift Boosts the Bull Case
In a recent post on his Substack newsletter, Arthur Hayes—co‑founder of the former CEX BitMEX—outlined a “CEX‑to‑DEX rotation” scenario that could lift Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, fivefold. According to Hayes, the platform must capture an additional 3.96 % of global derivatives volume from CEXs, on top of the roughly 6 % share it already holds.
The revenue implication is significant. Hayes estimates that the 30‑day annualised revenue run‑rate would need to reach $1.4 billion by August 2026, a jump of nearly 66 % from the $843 million reported in March. If realized, the increased cash flow would enable Hyperliquid to continue its practice of allocating about 97 % of earnings to buying back HYPE tokens on the open market, a mechanism that can help sustain price appreciation as trading activity rises.
Macro‑Asset Listings Fuel New Interest
The recent spike in geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran has pushed crude‑oil‑linked perpetual contracts to the top of Hyperliquid’s volume leaderboard. In the latest 24‑hour snapshot, the CL‑USDC pair generated roughly $1.29 billion in turnover, edging out the ETH‑USDC pair, which posted about $1.24 billion.
Hayes interprets this shift as validation of the platform’s broader “HIP‑3” thesis, which allows users to launch permissionless perpetual markets by staking HYPE. So far, HIP‑3 accounts for close to a tenth of Hyperliquid’s revenue, and Hayes believes that adding more commodity‑linked products—such as gold, silver, and major US equity indices—could lift that contribution by as much as 160 % in the coming months.
Technical Patterns Hint at an Initial Breakout
From a chart‑analysis perspective, the daily HYPE/USD price series has formed a classic cup‑and‑handle pattern. The “cup” represents a rounded recovery, while the subsequent “handle” shows a brief consolidation near $35.50. Should price break decisively above this neckline, the measured move would place HYPE near $50, representing a 40 % gain from current levels.
A failure to hold the $35.50 support could see the token retest the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement zone and the 50‑day exponential moving average, both situated around $30. Such a pullback would likely delay, but not necessarily derail, the longer‑term upside narrative outlined by Hayes.
Caveats and Track Record
Hayes’ optimism is not without historical context. His previous price targets—such as Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of 2025 and a “TRUMP” memecoin hitting a $100 billion market cap by the 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration—have yet to materialise. Moreover, a Maelstrom family‑office analysis earlier this year warned that $11.9 billion in upcoming HYPE token unlocks could exert downward pressure, a factor that contributed to a roughly 40 % decline in the token’s price over the past twelve months.
Investors should therefore weigh the upside potential against these risks, including the possibility that projected revenue growth may not materialise, that macro‑linked demand could wane, or that token unlock schedules could destabilise price.
Outlook
If Hyperliquid successfully expands its derivatives market share, sustains a high‑rate token‑buy‑back program, and continues to attract traders looking for macro‑asset exposure, the $150 target by mid‑2026 is mathematically plausible. The nearer $50 technical breakout, however, remains contingent on the cup‑and‑handle pattern holding its integrity.
The coming months will be pivotal in assessing whether the platform can convert its current momentum into the sustained volume and revenue growth necessary to support Hayes’ ambitious forecast.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/hyperliquid-hype-price-will-hit-150-by-august-predicts-arthur-hayes?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
