Why Bitcoin Analysts Forecast a Market Bottom in the Fourth Quarter of 2026
By [Your Name] – February 13 2026
Bitcoin’s price slipped away from its intraday peak of roughly $68,300 on Thursday, reigniting a wave of sell‑side pressure that many on‑chain analysts interpret as a deepening capitulation phase. A combination of technical signals and on‑chain metrics is feeding a consensus that the cryptocurrency could reach a decisive trough between September and November 2026, with price targets in the $40‑$50 k range.
The current capitulation landscape
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Sharp price pull‑back: After a 46 % drawdown from its all‑time high of $126 k (recorded in early 2025), Bitcoin has been testing the $100 k psychological barrier. Recent market activity shows sellers resuming momentum as the token retreated from the $68 k intraday high.
- On‑chain stress markers:
- The MVRV Adaptive Z‑Score (365‑day window) posted a reading of –2.66, a level historically associated with prolonged capitulation and the onset of accumulation phases.
- Long‑term holder (LTH) net‑position change on Glassnode revealed a net outflow of more than 245 k BTC on 6 February, marking a cycle‑relative extreme in daily distribution. Since then, long‑term investors have continued to shed roughly 170 k BTC on average.
- The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is edging toward a sub‑1 value, indicating that realized losses are beginning to outpace the remaining unrealised gains across the market.
- Net Realized Loss figures peaked at $13.6 bn on 7 February, echoing the loss magnitude observed during the 2022 bear market, which preceded that downturn’s bottom by roughly five months.
Together, these indicators suggest that the market is still in a “broad‑based capitulation” stage, with many participants liquidating positions and reducing exposure.
Historical cycles and the timing of the bottom
Analysts have drawn parallels with previous bear cycles:
| Cycle | All‑time high | Approx. time to bottom | Bottom range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $19 k (early 2018) | ~12 months later | $3‑4 k |
| 2022 | $68 k (late 2021) | ~12 months later | $15‑20 k |
| 2025 | $126 k (Oct 2025) | Expected ~12 months later | $40‑50 k (projected) |
- Tony Research (crypto analyst) anticipates the final capitulation could drive BTC to a low between $40 k and $50 k, with the most likely window stretching from mid‑September to late November 2026.
- Titan of Crypto notes that prior bear markets typically saw their nadir about a year after the preceding bull‑run peak, positioning the October 2026 timeframe as a plausible target.
- OnChainCollege points out that the current net realized loss level matches the 2022 peak, which preceded that year’s bottom by five months, suggesting a possible trough as early as July 2026.
While the exact timing remains uncertain, the convergence of on‑chain stress, historical patterning, and technical chart formations (weekly support zones around the $40‑$50 k band) underpin the consensus for a Q4 2026 bottom.
What the technical charts show
- Weekly price action: On the BTC/USD weekly chart, a descending channel forms below the $70 k mark, with the lower trend line intersecting the $45 k region—an area that historically has acted as a magnet for capitulation lows.
- Volume‑adjusted metrics: Declining futures open‑interest (down roughly 4 % in the past 24 hours) and modestly easing funding rates indicate that leveraged traders are scaling back exposure, a typical pre‑bottom behavior observed in past cycles.
Key takeaways
- Multiple on‑chain signals confirm deep capitulation: MVRV Z‑Score, LTH net outflows, and Realized P/L Ratio all point to sustained sell pressure.
- Historical cycles suggest a 12‑month lag from peak to trough: Based on 2018, 2022, and 2025 peaks, analysts expect a bottom around October 2026.
- Price target range: Consensus among analysts places the likely bottom between $40 k and $50 k.
- Potential early bottom: Some on‑chain data (net realized loss) could signal an earlier nadir as soon as July 2026, mirroring the 2022 timeline.
- Market sentiment remains fragile: With a large portion of holders underwater and open‑interest still above $67 bn, any breach of the $100 k psychological level could reignite short‑term volatility.
Outlook
If the projected bottom materialises, it would set the stage for a renewed accumulation phase, as indicated by the MVRV Adaptive Z‑Score moving out of the capitulation zone. Investors should monitor on‑chain metrics closely, as they have historically provided early warnings of both market stress and subsequent recovery.
The information in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-in-capitulation-zone-as-traders-debate-when-btc-price-will-bottom?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
