Bitcoin Bull Market May Restart If $74,500 Barrier Holds
Bitcoin’s recent rebound has put the spotlight on a $74.5 K price level that could decide whether the cryptocurrency re‑enters a sustained upward trend.
Market recap
After slipping to $62,400 on Tuesday – briefly breaching a historically significant on‑chain support zone – Bitcoin (BTC) recovered roughly 7.5 % over the following two days. The rally was enough to close above the $62 K mark but still left the token well under the average cost basis of a large cohort of holders who entered the market between six months and two years ago.
Why the $74,500 level matters
On‑chain analytics track the realized price – the average acquisition cost of coins segmented by age. For UTXOs that are 18–24 months old, the realized price sits near $64,200, a level that was successfully defended on Tuesday’s daily close.
A broader slice of Bitcoin’s supply – coins held for six months to two years – carries a higher realized price of approximately $74,500. This bracket includes investors who bought during the 2022‑2023 consolidation and the early 2024 breakout.
- MVRV ratio: For this age band the market‑value‑to‑realized‑value (MVRV) ratio is 0.88, indicating that, on average, these coins are still in unrealized loss territory (a ratio < 1).
- Profitability threshold: Falling below $74.5 K pushes this sizeable cohort deeper into loss, raising the likelihood of selling pressure as holders seek to cut losses. Conversely, a decisive move back above the level would return many of these positions into aggregate profit, potentially softening the sell side.
Supply dynamics
Data from CryptoQuant show that the long‑term holder balance – Bitcoin held for more than a year – has climbed back to ≈13.96 million BTC, near a three‑month high after dipping to a multi‑year low in late 2025. The rebound suggests a continued dormancy of a large portion of the supply despite recent price swings.
If the $74.5 K barrier holds and the price sustains above it, the pool of coins concentrated between $74.5 K and $100 K could be peeled away faster as profit‑making holders absorb sales near their break‑even points. In that scenario, market focus may shift toward the next liquidity cluster near the $100 K mark.
Realized cap and capital inflows
The realized cap – the sum of coins valued at the price of their last on‑chain movement – remains close to its cycle peak, but its growth rate has slowed. The net change in realized cap is hovering around 0 %, implying that fresh capital has largely stalled at higher cost bases.
Historically, the latter stages of a bear market see a flat or contracting realized cap, while early recovery phases are marked by a modest uptick (typically 2–4 % net change). A return to that range would signal renewed accumulation and could serve as a confirming signal for a broader bull market restart.
Outlook and scenarios
| Scenario | Price Action | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakthrough | Bitcoin sustains above $74,500 for multiple sessions | Reduces sell pressure from 6‑month‑to‑2‑year holders, encourages accumulation, may pave the way toward the next resistance zone ($90‑100 K). |
| Failed test | Price dips back below $74,500 after a brief rally | Re‑exposes a large cohort to unrealized losses, likely triggers additional distribution and could prolong the current downtrend. |
| Stagnant range | BTC oscillates around $70‑75 K | Market remains indecisive; realized cap stays flat, and on‑chain metrics suggest limited new capital inflow. |
Key takeaways
- $74,500 is the cost‑basis pivot for a substantial group of Bitcoin holders (6 months‑2 years), making it a critical psychological and liquidity level.
- MVRV < 1 for this cohort indicates that current prices still leave them in loss; crossing the threshold could swing sentiment positive.
- Long‑term supply remains high (≈14 M BTC), signifying that a large share of Bitcoin is dormant and not contributing to short‑term volatility.
- Realized cap growth has stalled, suggesting that fresh institutional or retail inflows are currently minimal; a shift back to a 2‑4 % net increase would be a bullish sign.
- A sustained rally above $74.5 K could thin out the supply between $74.5 K and $100 K, potentially setting the stage for the next major price target.
The information presented reflects on‑chain data and market analysis as of 26 February 2026. It is not investment advice; readers should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bear-market-may-end-if-bulls-reclaim-dollar74-5k-here-s-why?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
