Bitcoin ETF Inflows Rise While Derivatives Markets Signal Caution
February 2026
Key Takeaways
- ETF demand rebounds: U.S.‑listed Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of roughly $764 million over two trading days, offsetting the $1.2 billion that left the sector in the prior eight‑day window.
- Derivatives remain bearish: The annualised premium on two‑month Bitcoin futures stayed near 2 %, well under the 5 % level considered neutral, while put‑call skew on 30‑day options hovered at a +14 % premium for puts – a clear sign of lingering fear among professional traders.
- Broader risk aversion: The cautious stance in crypto markets coincides with a pullback in equity risk, highlighted by a 5 % drop in Nvidia shares after its earnings beat, suggesting investors are tightening liquidity across asset classes.
ETF Inflows Provide a Short‑Term Boost
Bitcoin’s price reclaimed the $70,000 threshold on Wednesday after sliding to a low of $62,500 on Tuesday. A notable driver behind the rebound was fresh capital flowing into U.S.‑listed Bitcoin ETFs. According to data from Farside Investors, the sector attracted $764 million in net purchases across two days, a reversal of the outflows that had drained roughly $1.2 billion from the market over the previous week and a half.
Analysts attribute the inflow surge to institutional investors who view ETF positions as a relatively low‑friction way to gain exposure when Bitcoin trades below $65,000. The pattern mirrors prior cycles where heightened demand for regulated products helped stabilise sentiment after sharp price declines.
Derivatives Markets Remain Skewed Toward the Bear
Despite the ETF‑driven optimism, the broader derivatives market paints a more hesitant picture. Data from Laevitas shows the annualised premium on Bitcoin futures—the yield earned by holding a futures contract versus the spot market—stood at 2 % on Thursday. A premium above 5 % is typically regarded as neutral, indicating that traders are not yet willing to pay a meaningful risk premium for a bullish stance.
The bearish tilt is further reinforced by the put‑call skew on 30‑day options traded on Deribit. Put options, which profit from price declines, were priced 14 % higher than comparable calls. In a balanced environment, the skew usually oscillates between –6 % and +6 %; the current level suggests that market participants continue to hedge against downside risk. While the skew has improved from a 28 % “panic” reading earlier in the week, the shift has not been sufficient to change the overall risk‑averse sentiment.
Underlying Drivers of the Cautious Outlook
Several macro and crypto‑specific factors appear to be feeding the continued wariness:
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Institutional liquidation aftermath – The October 2025 market crash eliminated roughly $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions and was followed by accusations—later denied by Binance’s former CEO Changpeng Zhao—of exchange‑level mishandling of liquidations. The episode may have left large players more reluctant to re‑enter leveraged positions.
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Network‑security concerns – Ongoing debates about the potential impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations have resurfaced, especially after Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from his “Greed & Fear” portfolio. Proposals such as BIP‑360 aim to future‑proof the protocol, but the dialogue has added another layer of uncertainty for risk‑averse investors.
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Broader market risk aversion – A 5 % dip in Nvidia shares after robust earnings highlights a tightening of risk appetite in the equity space, which often mirrors sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. When core technology stocks pull back, investors tend to shy away from high‑volatility assets like Bitcoin.
- Speculation around large traders – Recent speculation linking the recent price weakness to quantitative firms such as Jane Street has kept market participants on edge. While the firm’s 13‑F filing shows exposure to Bitcoin‑related securities, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno notes that such holdings are consistent with delta‑neutral strategies rather than directional bets.
Outlook
Bitcoin’s price recovery to the $70,000 mark underscores the resilience of the asset when supported by inflows into regulated products. However, the muted futures premium and elevated put‑call skew suggest that the rally may be more fragile than headline numbers imply.
For the price to sustainably climb toward the $75,000 target many traders have in mind, two conditions appear necessary:
- Improved risk sentiment across traditional and crypto markets, possibly triggered by positive macro data or a broader equity rally.
- Clear resolution of security and liquidity concerns, including definitive progress on post‑quantum upgrades and a demonstrated ability to manage large‑scale liquidations without destabilising the market.
Until those signals coalesce, Bitcoin is likely to continue trading in a narrow range, buoyed by ETF inflows but constrained by the cautious posture of futures and options traders.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-futures-options-market-flash-caution-even-as-btc-chases-70k?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
