Bitcoin Slides Below $95,000 as Analysts Pinpoint a Crucial Test Zone
Jan. 16, 2026 – 09:30 UTC
The crypto market entered a modest pull‑back on Friday, with the total market capitalisation slipping to about $3.3 trillion, a 1.7 % dip from the previous day. The most‑watched digital asset, Bitcoin, fell back under the psychological $95 k barrier, trading around $94,700 at press time – a 1.2 % decline for the session but still up more than 4 % on the week.
Market Snapshot
| Asset | 24‑hr change | Current price* |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | –1.2 % | $94,700 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | –1.8 % | $3,365 |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | –4.0 % | — |
| Total crypto cap | –1.7 % | $3.3 trn |
*Prices are approximate and sourced from CoinGecko.
All of the top‑10 cryptocurrencies posted modest losses, with Dogecoin registering the steepest slide (≈ 4 %). Ethereum, despite its dip, remains in positive territory for the week (+5.5 %).
Bitcoin at a Potential Inflection Point
Glassnode on‑chain analyst Chris Beamish warned that Bitcoin is approaching a “key inflexion point.” He noted that the price needs to reclaim the short‑term holder cost‑basis for recent buyers to move back into profit – a condition historically necessary for renewed upward momentum.
A parallel Glassnode post highlighted a surge in month‑over‑month retention among new Ethereum wallets, suggesting a fresh wave of participants rather than activity confined to established addresses.
Mike Marshall, head of research at Amberdata, echoed a cautiously optimistic view. He said the current price action appears to be driven by a convergence of on‑chain metrics and market‑structure cues. Marshall pointed to:
- Stablecoin minting that has remained robust, providing liquidity to the broader ecosystem.
- ETF outflows that are showing signs of stabilization after a recent acceleration.
- Derivatives markets where speculative positions are accumulating on the long side.
Nevertheless, Marshall cautioned that portfolio rotations and lingering macro‑economic uncertainty could inject volatility into the market during the remainder of Q1.
ETF Flows and Liquidity
Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $100.2 million in net inflows on Thursday, pushing total cumulative inflows to roughly $58.2 billion (SoSoValue). Spot Ethereum ETFs posted an even larger daily net inflow of $164.4 million, bringing assets under management to $20.4 billion.
Liquidity pressure remained moderate. According to Coinglass, total crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours amounted to $239 million, of which:
- Long positions: $181 million
- Short positions: $58 million
Bitcoin liquidations alone totalled about $62.5 million, with Ethereum contributing $38 million and other altcoins accounting for roughly $31 million.
Movers Among the Top‑100 Tokens
- Dash (DASH) surged ~15 %, extending gains after a 50 % rally linked to an Alchemy Pay integration.
- SKY advanced about 4.8 % on the day.
- Polygon (formerly MATIC, now POL) reversed its recent rally, dropping ~8 % and becoming the biggest laggard among the top‑100 assets.
Macro & Geopolitical Backdrop
U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on the morning of Jan. 16: the 10‑year note hovered near 4.18 %, while the 30‑year bond was close to 4.8 %. Markets remain attentive to broader geopolitical narratives, including:
- Former President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland, which has kept investors wary of potential policy volatility (CNBC).
- Canada’s announcement of a “new strategic partnership” with China, signaling a shift away from U.S.‑aligned tariff policy (Bloomberg).
On the economic data front, the U.S. Labor Department reported that import prices rose 0.4 % from September to November, even as imported fuel costs fell 2.5 %.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s breach of $95 k marks a technical threshold that many on‑chain analysts view as a make‑or‑break zone. Re‑capturing the short‑term holder cost‑basis could reignite bullish momentum.
- On‑chain health remains mixed: stablecoin issuance is strong, but new user adoption on Ethereum is accelerating, possibly laying the groundwork for future demand.
- ETF inflows continue to support price floors for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, though the slowdown in ETF outflows warrants close monitoring.
- Liquidity conditions are relatively calm, with modest liquidation volumes and a clear long‑biased positioning in derivatives markets.
- Macro uncertainty persists. Treasury yield levels, geopolitical developments, and shifting trade dynamics (e.g., Canada‑China rapprochement) could affect risk appetite across the crypto space.
Investors and traders should watch the $94,500‑$95,500 corridor closely in the coming days. A decisive move above the upper edge could validate the “inflection point” narrative, while a break below the lower bound may trigger further downside pressure and heightened volatility.
Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/bitcoin-below-usd95k-crypto-market-update-jan-16-2026
