.Bitcoin Slides to 14‑Month Low, Triggering Concerns of a Break‑down Below $60,000
The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped under $70,000 for the first time since November 2024, prompting a wave of bearish commentary and renewed scrutiny of on‑chain metrics.
Market overview
After a series of sharp corrections that have rattled the broader digital‑asset market, Bitcoin (BTC) is now trading around $69,300, a 21 % decline in just one week. The price level marks the deepest point the flagship coin has reached in roughly 14 months, erasing much of the upside that followed its earlier rally toward the $80,000 psychological barrier.
The sell‑off comes as macro‑economic pressures persist and risk appetite wanes across crypto and traditional markets alike. While the move has already taken BTC below the $70,000 mark—its first breach since the tail end of 2024—many traders worry the downside could accelerate further.
Technical signals
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Moving‑average crossovers: Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that BTC has now slipped beneath its 100‑week simple moving average (SMA). Historically, a breach of this long‑term trend line has preceded a slide toward the 200‑week SMA, a pattern that has repeated every time since 2015. If the trend holds, the 200‑week SMA could act as the next target, implying a price path into the $57,600–$55,000 range.
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Support levels: Previously identified support zones at $77,086, $60,176, and $47,824 are now being tested. The $60,176 level, in particular, is viewed as a crucial “psychological floor.” A decisive break beneath it could open the door to deeper, multi‑month corrections.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14‑day RSI is hovering near 19, well inside the oversold territory (below 30). While an oversold reading often precedes a short‑term bounce, it also signals heightened weakness that could fuel further downside if selling pressure persists.
Analyst perspectives
| Analyst / Handle | Outlook | Notable points |
|---|---|---|
| Ali Martinez (X) | Bearish – potential slide to $57,600 | Emphasises loss of 100‑week SMA; cites historical pattern of failing to reclaim it before heading to the 200‑week SMA. |
| Hardy (X) | Very bearish – bottom around $30,000 | Predicts a “massive decline” over the coming months, far beyond the $60K mark. |
| PlanB (Stock‑to‑Flow model) | Mixed – 50‑60 % chance of $50K‑$60K, 15 % chance of $25K | Ran a poll among followers; the majority favor a $50K‑$60K correction, while a minority see a crash to $25K. |
The diversity of views underscores the uncertainty surrounding BTC’s near‑term trajectory. While some analysts argue that a deeper trough is inevitable, others see the current oversold conditions as a potential catalyst for a short‑term rebound.
On‑chain data
Data from CryptoQuant shows a steady increase in the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges over the past several weeks. Historically, rising exchange balances are interpreted as a pre‑sale signal—investors moving assets to custodial platforms to facilitate liquidation. The latest charts indicate that a significant portion of BTC supply is now poised for potential selling, adding weight to the bearish narrative.
Outlook and scenarios
- Mild correction – If BTC manages to hold above the $60,000 support and the RSI rebounds, a technical bounce toward $70,000–$75,000 could occur within the next few weeks.
- Moderate decline – A breach of the $60,176 floor would likely trigger a slide toward the $50,000–$55,000 corridor, aligning with the majority view from PlanB’s poll.
- Severe crash – Should the 100‑week SMA remain broken and exchange inflows continue unabated, the price could test the $47,824 support and, in a worst‑case scenario, dip toward the $30,000‑$25,000 region flagged by Hardy and the more extreme Stock‑to‑Flow projections.
Key takeaways
- 14‑month low: Bitcoin’s current price is the lowest it has been since late 2022, reflecting a 21 % weekly drop.
- Technical warning signs: Loss of the 100‑week SMA and an RSI deep in oversold territory raise the risk of further downside.
- Analyst consensus leans bearish: Most commentators anticipate a correction below $60,000, with a sizable minority warning of a possible plunge to $25,000–$30,000.
- On‑chain pressure: Growing exchange‑based holdings suggest that more sellers could enter the market soon.
- Potential support: The $60,176 level is the pivotal barrier; holding above it may limit losses, while a break could open a path to $47,824 or lower.
Investors should monitor the interaction of price with the 100‑week SMA, the RSI reading, and exchange inflow trends for early signals of which scenario may unfold. As always, high volatility remains a defining characteristic of the cryptocurrency market, and risk management is essential.
Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-breakdown-continues-14-month-low-sparks-fears-of-a-deeper-fall-below-60k/
