Bitcoin Bottom Signal Fires, Yet Investor Appetite Remains Tepid
By [Your Name] – February 28 2026
A technical indicator that preceded Bitcoin’s 130 % rally in 2024 has resurfaced this week, rekindling speculation that the cryptocurrency may be approaching another inflection point. However, a confluence of liquidity constraints, tepid ETF inflows and stubborn inflation figures suggests that the market environment differs markedly from the one that powered the previous surge.
The signal re‑emerges
Swissblock, a data‑aggregation platform that tracks on‑chain risk metrics, reported that Bitcoin has now spent 25 consecutive days in its “extreme high‑risk” bracket. This is the longest uninterrupted stretch ever recorded, surpassing the previous record of 23 days set in 2023. Historically, prolonged periods in this zone have coincided with the final stages of a decline and the subsequent bottom formation.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, highlighted a similar pattern in his “BTC‑vs‑Supply” profit‑and‑loss chart. The price is currently interacting with zones that, in the past, have marked the transition from a risk‑heavy regime to a more stable, lower‑risk environment—precisely the setup that preceded the 2024 rally.
Positioning remains out of sync
Despite the technical backdrop, trader sentiment is not yet aligned with a bullish turn. RugaResearch observed that the 30‑day “apparent demand” metric is oscillating between positive and negative values, indicating that while selling pressure has eased, consistent buying pressure has not taken hold.
The disconnect is evident in the broader flow data. Since August, gold ETFs have out‑performed spot‑Bitcoin ETFs on a 90‑day rolling basis. Bitcoin funds, by contrast, have registered net outflows of roughly $2.06 billion over the same period, reflecting a cautious stance among institutional participants.
Macro‑economic backdrop
Ecoinometrics, a macro‑focused newsletter, reminded readers that recoveries from deep (≈ 50 %) drawdowns have historically been protracted, with the sole exception of the 2020 COVID‑era rally that benefitted from aggressive monetary stimulus. The current environment lacks comparable stimulus, as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)—remains elevated, hovering near 2.9 % YoY for headline and 3.0 % for core. Core services are above 3.4 %, leaving little room for an imminent easing of monetary policy.
With limited expectations for liquidity expansion, the capital available for risk‑on assets such as Bitcoin appears constrained.
Technical outlook
Market analyst Willy Woo (CMCC Crest) cautioned that even a short‑term bounce toward the $70 k–$80 k range would likely trigger fresh selling. According to his flow model, both spot and futures markets are experiencing deteriorating liquidity, reinforcing a bearish macro regime.
Woo’s price‑level framework places $45 k as a pivotal threshold aligned with the previous bear market low. Below that, the $30 k and $16 k zones serve as historical support levels that have traditionally preserved the longer‑term trend.
Key Takeaways
| Point | Implication |
|---|---|
| Extended “high‑risk” zone – 25 days in Swissblock’s risk indicator | Historically precedes bottoms, but not a guarantee of an imminent rally. |
| Supply‑based profit/loss chart – price testing previous bottom zones | Suggests a potential technical reset, similar to 2023‑24 transition. |
| Weak demand signal – 30‑day demand metric toggling, net outflows from BTC funds | Indicates investor appetite is still muted despite risk signals. |
| Liquidity constraints – Gold ETF inflows outpacing Bitcoin, limited monetary easing | Limits the amount of fresh capital that can flow into risk assets. |
| Persistent inflation – PCE near 3 % with no clear downward trend | Reduces expectations for Fed rate cuts, keeping risk‑free rates relatively high. |
| Technical resistance – $70k‑$80k likely an unsustainable ceiling; $45k pivotal | A bounce above $45k may be short‑lived without broader macro support. |
Outlook
While the reappearance of a historically bullish bottom signal is noteworthy, the broader market context paints a more cautious picture. Investor risk appetite appears constrained by lingering inflation pressures, modest ETF inflows and a lack of clear monetary stimulus. Until these macro variables shift—or a decisive surge in buying demand materialises—the probability of a sustained Bitcoin rally remains uncertain.
The analysis above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct independent research before making any trading or investment decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bottom-fractal-calls-for-130percent-rally-but-is-the-model-valid-in-2026?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
