Bitcoin Holds a Crucial Resistance Zone as Altcoins Mirror the Bearish Trend – Will the Down‑ward Pressure Ease?
February 17 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) opened the week hovering just under the $74,500 mark, a level that has become a litmus test for market direction. While bulls are fighting to keep the price above the $67,500 region, the cryptocurrency’s broader trajectory remains clouded by fresh outflows from exchange‑traded products and a series of technical obstacles that could force a second consecutive month of negative closes. The same defensive posture is now evident across most of the top‑ten altcoins, suggesting that bearish sentiment is spreading beyond the flagship coin.
Market Flow and Macro backdrop
- ETF outflows: Data from CoinShares show that BTC‑linked exchange‑traded funds shed $133 million in the past week, pushing four‑week cumulative withdrawals to $3.8 billion. The continued capital flight underscores a reluctance among investors to buy the dip.
- Quarterly performance: Should Bitcoin finish February below $79,500, it would mark the first back‑to‑back monthly declines for the crypto giant since the start of 2023 and would register a 22 % loss for the quarter—its poorest showing since the 49.7 % plunge in 2018.
- Institutional confidence: Despite the market slump, Strategy’s co‑founder Michael Saylor announced on X that the firm completed its 99th Bitcoin purchase this week, indicating that some long‑term holders remain conviction‑driven.
In parallel, traditional markets are also testing resilience. The S&P 500 is flirting with a bearish moving‑average crossover and an RSI slipping into negative territory, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits near a support band between 95.55 and 96.21 but has not yet broken decisively lower.
Bitcoin: Technical crossroads
The daily BTC/USDT chart reveals sellers stepping in around the $71,000 zone, attempting to stall any upward momentum. The $74,508 resistance line now acts as a “break‑and‑hold” test:
- Bearish scenario: If the price dips below $65,000, the pair could revisit the $60,000 floor. A breach of that support may open the path toward $52,500, intensifying the sell‑off.
- Bullish scenario: A close above $74,508 would signal weakening of the bearish thrust, potentially paving the way toward the 50‑day simple moving average near $83,900. However, even in that case, the bears are likely to defend that SMA heavily.
Overall, the chart suggests that the next decisive move will hinge on whether buyers can sustain any push past the $74,500 barrier, or whether sellers will continue to capitulate rallies.
Altcoin landscape: Mirrors of the Bitcoin trend
| Asset | Current Test Level | Near‑Term Support | Potential Upside | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,111 resistance | $1,897 immediate, $1,750 secondary | $2,744 (50‑day SMA) | Bearish pressure resurges after a short‑term bounce; a break above the 20‑day EMA ($2,221) could indicate a shift. |
| BNB | $642 ceiling | $570, then $500 psychological | $817 (50‑day SMA) | The relief rally stalled; sellers are targeting lower thresholds. |
| XRP | $1.61 breakdown line | $1.53 EMA, $1.11 low | $1.81 (50‑day SMA) | Bears reclaimed the level after a brief surge; bulls may try again. |
| Solana (SOL) | $95 breakout point | $76, then $67 low | $117 (next resistance) | Price is trapped in a $76‑$95 range, primed for a possible upside breakout if momentum revives. |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.12 resistance | $0.08, then $0.06 | $0.16 | RSI near equilibrium suggests range‑bound action; a decisive close above $0.12 could trigger a rally. |
| Cardano (ADA) | $0.29 EMA ceiling | Support line, then $0.20 | N/A (channel intact) | Bulls need to clear the 20‑day EMA to exit the descending channel. |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | $578 50‑day SMA resistance | $544 EMA, $500 | $600 | Recent surge above the EMA shows weakening bear grip; a break above $578 would signal further upside. |
The common thread across these assets is a pattern of “defensive” bears: each token faces a key technical hurdle that, if failed, could lead to deeper retracements. Conversely, a clean break above the identified resistance levels would suggest a coordinated relief rally across the crypto market.
What could shift the narrative?
- Sustained BTC breakout – If Bitcoin closes firmly above $74,508 and holds through the next session, the pressure on altcoins may ease, prompting a broader risk‑on environment.
- Macro catalyst – A decisive move in the S&P 500 or a breakout in the DXY could alter the risk appetite that drives crypto flows. A rally in equities might lift crypto, while a strengthening dollar could maintain capital outflows.
- Regulatory or institutional news – Positive regulatory developments or additional institutional purchases (e.g., further Strategy buys) could provide a confidence boost, especially if accompanied by renewed inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
- Liquidity events – Large‑scale liquidation of short positions or futures contracts could trigger a short‑squeeze, briefly propelling prices above resistance zones.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin is at a critical junction: The $74,500 resistance is now the litmus test for whether the current bearish phase will deepen or give way to a modest recovery.
- Altcoins are echoing Bitcoin’s stress points: Most major tokens are battling similar resistance levels, indicating that bearish sentiment is widespread rather than isolated.
- Capital continues to flee BTC‑linked products, pushing four‑week ETF outflows to $3.8 bn—a sign that many investors remain cautious.
- Institutional buying persists: Strategy’s ongoing purchases suggest that at least a segment of the market remains confident in Bitcoin’s long‑term upside.
- Broader market conditions matter: A faltering S&P 500 or a firming dollar could reinforce the current downtrend, while a rally in traditional assets may provide the spark needed for a crypto‑wide bounce.
The outlook remains highly contingent on near‑term price action around key technical thresholds. Traders and investors should monitor the $74,508 level for Bitcoin and the corresponding resistance zones on the top altcoins, while keeping an eye on macro‑economic signals that could tip the balance.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-predictions-2-16-spx-dxy-btc-eth-bnb-xrp-sol-doge-ada-bch?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
