Bitcoin May Rebound to $85,000 as CME “Smart Money” Slashes Short Bets
February 22 2026
TL;DR
- CME futures net‑shorts fell to –1,600 contracts, a swing of roughly 2,600 contracts in one month, indicating that large speculators have moved from a short to a long stance.
- Technical indicators show Bitcoin (BTC) defending its 200‑week exponential moving average (EMA) near $68,350 and the weekly RSI remains in oversold territory.
- If the bullish momentum holds, the price target for the 100‑week EMA – about $85,000 – could be reached by April 2026.
- A breach below the 200‑week EMA would revive the risk of a down‑move toward $40,000, echoing the 2022 correction.
1. CME futures positioning flips to the upside
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows non‑commercial traders—primarily hedge funds, proprietary desks and other “smart money” participants—cutting their net short exposure on CME Bitcoin futures from roughly +1,000 contracts in January to –1,600 contracts in February.
A net‑short to net‑long swing of this magnitude signals that the big players are adding long positions with a sense of urgency. Analyst Tom McClellan highlighted the similarity to two historic turn‑arounds:
| Year | Net‑short swing | Subsequent BTC rally |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Large net‑short unwind | >190 % price gain |
| 2025 (April) | Net‑short dropped 2,600 contracts | ≈70 % price gain |
The current shift mirrors those past cycles, suggesting a potential bottom formation in the futures market that could translate into spot price appreciation.
2. Technical backdrop: EMA support and oversold momentum
- 200‑week EMA: Bitcoin is trading just above the blue 200‑week EMA, which sits around $68,350. This line has historically acted as a floor during bear markets, halting declines in 2015, 2018 and 2020.
- 100‑week EMA: The next major resistance level, the purple 100‑week EMA, lies near $85,000. A clean break above the 200‑week EMA could set the stage for a move toward this level.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The weekly RSI remains well below the 30‑point “oversold” threshold, indicating that selling pressure may be waning.
Together, these factors suggest that the odds of a short‑term recovery have improved. A decisive rally above the 200‑week EMA could trigger a price run toward the 100‑week EMA by the spring.
3. Risks and downside scenarios
McClellan cautioned that the positioning shift is a condition, not a guarantee. The market could still experience a pull‑back before a true bottom is established. A break below the 200‑week EMA would resurrect the 2022 pattern, where BTC fell more than 40 % after sliding beneath this key moving average.
If such a scenario unfolds, price models from several firms—including Kaiko—project a potential floor in the $40,000‑$50,000 range, roughly 60 % below the all‑time high of $126,270. The “four‑year cycle” framework also points to that zone as a plausible bottom.
4. What the data means for traders
| Indicator | Current reading | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| CME net‑shorts | –1,600 contracts (down from +1,000) | Smart money turning bullish |
| 200‑week EMA | $68,350 (support holding) | Possible floor, bullish bias |
| 100‑week EMA | $85,000 (target) | Upside catalyst if breached |
| Weekly RSI | <30 (oversold) | Selling pressure likely exhausted |
- Short‑term outlook: Expect modest volatility around the 200‑week EMA. A break above $68,500 could see BTC test the $75,000‑$80,000 corridor before the $85,000 milestone.
- Medium‑term outlook: Should the rally stall and the price slip under $66,000, the risk of a deeper correction toward $50,000 rises sharply.
5. Bottom line
The rapid unwind of CME Bitcoin futures shorts marks a clear shift in the sentiment of large institutional players. Coupled with technical signs of support and oversold momentum, the market appears poised for a potential rebound toward $85,000 in the coming months. However, the situation remains fragile; a breach of the 200‑week EMA would reopen the path to a sub‑$50,000 correction reminiscent of past bear‑market cycles.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-may-rebound-85k-cme-smart-money-slashes-shorts?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
