$10.5 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Redefine Market Sentiment
February 25 2026
Key Takeaways
- Bullish breakthrough required: With Bitcoin trading around $68,800, a rise of roughly 9 % is needed for long positions to come out ahead of the $10.5 bn monthly options expiry on Friday.
- Put side holds the advantage: Despite a lower total open interest, put contracts are positioned to profit in most price‑range scenarios, especially if Bitcoin stays below $75,000.
- Tech stocks drive the narrative: Bitcoin’s ≈90 % correlation with the Nasdaq‑100 underscores how equity‑market sentiment, particularly in the AI‑heavy tech sector, continues to steer crypto risk appetite.
Market backdrop
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to an eight‑day high on Wednesday, carving out a double‑bottom near the $62,500 mark. The bounce, however, only recovers a fraction of the 21 % slump the digital asset has endured over the past month. While the price action offers a brief respite from the bearish trend, the looming options expiry may well reset expectations for the rest of the quarter.
Options landscape
The February expiry represents the largest single‑day settlement of Bitcoin options this year, with a combined $10.5 billion of open interest spread across call (buy) and put (sell) contracts. The distribution among venues is heavily skewed:
| Exchange | Share of total OI* | Call OI | Put OI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deribit | ~76 % | $4.5 bn | $3.4 bn |
| OKX | ~10 % | $610 m | $385 m |
| CME | ~5 % | $255 m | $287 m |
| Others | ~9 % | — | — |
*Open interest (OI) reflects the aggregate notional value of outstanding contracts.
Deribit dominates the market, accounting for three‑quarters of the total exposure. OKX and CME together hold a modest share, but together they still represent a non‑trivial slice of the global options pool.
Calls vs. puts – why the latter may win
At first glance, the call side appears larger, with roughly $7.9 bn versus $5.5 bn in puts. A deeper look, however, reveals that a substantial portion of call contracts are likely to expire worthless if Bitcoin does not breach the $70,000 threshold. Deribit’s data shows that 88 % of its call exposure would be out‑of‑the‑money under that price level.
When ultra‑high strikes (e.g., $105k and above) – often components of intricate multi‑leg strategies – are removed from the calculation, the effective call open interest contracts down to about $780 million. By contrast, put contracts targeting the $60,000–$72,000 band total roughly $1.44 billion, while puts above $72,000 hold another $1.15 billion. In aggregate, the put side enjoys a comfortable cushion against the call side, provided Bitcoin continues to trade under $75,000.
The tech‑stock connection
A striking 90 % correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq‑100 Index has persisted over the past month, emphasizing that broader risk sentiment in the U.S. equity market, especially the AI‑driven tech sector, remains a primary driver for crypto price moves. The recent earnings reported by Nvidia (NVDA) and other AI heavyweights have injected fresh optimism into risk assets. Should equities sustain their upward momentum, the indirect boost could help Bitcoin clear the $75,000 barrier — a level that would dramatically tilt the options outcome in favor of call holders.
Scenario analysis
Based on current price trajectories, three plausible price windows for Friday’s settlement have been outlined:
| BTC settlement range | Net effect on puts* |
|---|---|
| $65,000‑$69,000 | +$1.15 bn |
| $69,001‑$71,000 | +$845 m |
| $71,001‑$74,000 | +$470 m |
*Net effect reflects the difference between put and call open interest that would be in‑the‑money.
Only a scenario where Bitcoin exceeds $74,000 begins to erode the put advantage, and a decisive flip would still require the asset to climb to roughly $75,000‑$80,000 – a level that, as of now, would necessitate a 9 % rally from the current price of $68,800.
What the expiry could mean for market expectations
If Bitcoin fails to rally past the critical threshold, the bulk of the $10.5 bn of options will settle in favor of put sellers, reinforcing a bearish outlook for the near term. Such an outcome would likely:
- Validate short‑term downside risk, prompting further capitulation among retail investors who have already endured a 21 % monthly decline.
- Highlight the influence of equity‑market dynamics, as the Nasdaq‑100 correlation suggests that a sustained rally in tech stocks could serve as a catalyst for a crypto rebound.
- Set a benchmark for future options pricing, with premiums potentially widening for bullish contracts if market participants anticipate a similar “reset” after the expiry.
Conversely, a surprise surge past $75,000 would not only flip the options payoff but could also restore confidence among bullish traders, potentially igniting a short‑term rally that spills over into the next month’s options cycle.
Bottom line
The February $10.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry stands at a crossroads. While calls dominate headline open interest, the effective exposure is heavily weighted toward puts, especially in the $60k‑$72k corridor. Bitcoin must muster a ≈9 % uptick from its current level to overturn the prevailing put advantage. With a ≈90 % correlation to the Nasdaq‑100, the fate of the options settlement may hinge as much on equity‑market performance – particularly AI‑related earnings – as on crypto‑specific fundamentals.
Investors should monitor both the crypto price action and broader market cues in the hours leading up to Friday’s settlement, as the outcome will likely shape sentiment and positioning for the remainder of the quarter.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-upcoming-10-5b-options-expiry-may-end-bear-market-here-s-how?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
