Will Crypto Markets React to the $2 B Bitcoin Options Expiry Today?
By Crypto News Desk – 20 February 2026
Overview
A fresh batch of Bitcoin derivatives is set to unwind at 08:00 UTC on Friday, with roughly 30,600 contracts expiring on the Deribit platform. The total notional value of the Bitcoin side alone is estimated at about $2 billion, while the broader crypto options market—including approximately 212,000 Ethereum contracts—adds another $400 million to the tally, bringing the combined expiry volume to close to $2.4 billion.
With spot trading currently stuck in a range‑bound pattern and broader market volatility at a low, the question on many traders’ minds is whether this sizeable options expiration will be enough to spark a noticeable move in the underlying assets.
Options Landscape
| Metric | Bitcoin | Ethereum |
|---|---|---|
| Contracts expiring | ~30,600 | ~212,000 |
| Notional value | ~$2 bn | ~$0.4 bn |
| Put/Call ratio | 0.59 (calls outweigh puts) | 0.75 (calls also dominate) |
| Max‑pain level* | $70,000 | $2,050 |
| Open interest at key strikes (Deribit) | $1.2 bn at $60k, $1 bn at $50k | — |
| Total OI across all exchanges (month‑to‑date) | $36.5 bn | $6.8 bn |
*Max pain represents the price at which the aggregate payout to option holders is minimized; it is a commonly watched indicator ahead of expiries.
The put/call ratio below 1.0 suggests a call‑heavy skew, meaning more market participants have positioned for an upside move. Deribit’s own research notes that Bitcoin displays the stronger upside skew when compared with other major assets. Conversely, analysts at Laevitas point out that downside protection remains in demand, with roughly 2,140 BTC worth of puts purchased around the $58,000 strike—an indication that a segment of the market is still hedging against potential declines.
Open interest (OI) continues to climb, now standing at $36.5 billion for Bitcoin options across all venues. The concentration of OI at the $60,000 and $50,000 strikes hints at a growing bearish sentiment among speculative traders, even as the overall positioning tilts toward calls.
Spot Market Conditions
Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap has been essentially flat at $2.37 trillion, a level that is roughly 46 % below its all‑time peak. Bitcoin has been inching lower since the start of the week, dipping to a low of $65,700 on Thursday before rebounding to $67,300 in early Asian trading. The price is currently testing a resistance zone near $70,000, while support appears to sit just above $60,000.
Ethereum has shown little movement, consolidating around the $1,950 mark. Other altcoins remain near their bear‑market lows, with little price action to speak of.
Given the tight range and the lack of strong directional bias in the spot market, any significant price swing triggered by the options expiry would likely need to be driven by a sharp, unexpected shift in the balance between calls and puts at the moment of settlement.
Potential Scenarios
-
Minimal Impact – If the majority of expiring calls are out‑of‑the‑money (OTM) relative to the current $67k‑range, the expiry could pass without a discernible price reaction. The existing call‑heavy skew would simply be reset, and market participants would look ahead to the next set of contracts.
-
Upside Push – Should a sudden inflow of buying pressure coincide with the expiry—perhaps spurred by a breakout above the $70k max‑pain level—call holders could be forced to exercise, adding buying pressure to the spot market.
- Downside Spike – A rapid move below $58k could trigger the recently purchased put protection, leading to a cascade of sell orders as put holders exercise or hedge. This scenario would be amplified by the sizable OI at the $60k strike.
Historical data shows that options expiries of a comparable size, when occurring in a low‑volatility environment, often have muted effects on spot prices. The $2 bn notional figure is slightly smaller than the previous week’s expiry, further reducing the probability of a dramatic market swing.
Key Takeaways
- $2 bn in Bitcoin options are set to expire today, with a put/call ratio of 0.59 indicating a call‑biased market.
- Max‑pain for Bitcoin sits at $70,000, above the current price, suggesting many contracts will expire OTM unless a breakout occurs.
- Open interest remains high across all strikes, especially at $60k and $50k, reflecting lingering bearish bets.
- Spot markets are flat, with Bitcoin hovering near $67,300 and trading within a $60k‑$70k corridor.
- Historical patterns imply limited immediate impact, but traders should monitor for any rapid price movement that could trigger exercising of in‑the‑money options.
As the crypto market continues to navigate a prolonged bear phase with low volatility, today’s options expiry is unlikely to be a catalyst for a major directional shift. Nonetheless, market participants will be watching the $70k resistance closely, as any breach could turn the options landscape from a passive unwind into an active driver of price action.
Source: https://cryptopotato.com/will-crypto-markets-react-to-2b-bitcoin-options-expiring-today/
