Bitcoin Endures Fifth Straight Red Month – Is a Bottom Emerging?
February 20 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to close its fifth consecutive monthly decline, a streak not witnessed since the prolonged bear market of 2018‑19. The cryptocurrency has slipped roughly 15 % in March, extending a run of four prior months in the red. While the trend deepens concerns about a lingering downturn, several analysts point to historical patterns and technical metrics that could hint at an upcoming reversal.
The Current Decline in Context
- Month‑to‑month performance: Data compiled by market‑analytics platform CoinGlass shows Bitcoin’s monthly returns have been negative for the past five months, the longest series of losing months since the 2018 bear market that followed the 2017 all‑time high.
- Quarterly perspective: During the 2022 bear phase, Bitcoin recorded four consecutive red quarters, eroding the price from about $46,800 to $20,500 – a 56 % decline across the year. That period saw nine straight weekly drops, underscoring how quickly a downtrend can intensify when weekly and quarterly signals align.
- Historical rebound: The last time a five‑month red streak occurred (2018‑19), Bitcoin later posted a +316 % rally over the subsequent five months. Analysts at the macro‑investment outlet Milk Road highlighted this precedent, suggesting “the reversal will begin on April 1.”
Technical Indicators: A Mixed Picture
| Indicator | Current Reading | Historical Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly RSI | Near the lows recorded in the 2015 and 2018 bear markets | Typically a signal that the asset is oversold, but Sykodelic notes the absence of a strong overbought phase preceding this dip |
| Weekly Candles | Five successive bearish weekly candles – the longest streak since 2022 | In 2022, nine weekly declines preceded a more protracted slide to $20,500 |
| Monthly Support Zones | $60,000 15‑month low remains a critical pivot | Breaching this level could open a path toward the $50k–$55k range, echoing the 2022 downturn |
Veteran analyst Sykodelic argues that the present bear cycle diverges from prior ones, emphasizing that the monthly RSI has already hit depths seen in earlier crashes, yet the market lacks the classic “overbought‑to‑oversold” swing that historically foreshadowed a symmetric rebound. The analyst likens the current dynamics more to the post‑2020 environment, where macro variables and regulatory headwinds have reshaped price behavior.
What the Data Suggest About March
CoinGlass’ month‑by‑month breakdown indicates that, despite the overall negative trend, March could turn positive for Bitcoin. Historically, March has delivered modest gains after a series of red months, offering a small window for a “mini‑recovery” before the broader seasonal cycle resumes.
Potential Scenarios
| Scenario | Drivers | Price Target (12‑Month Outlook) |
|---|---|---|
| Continuation of Bear Market | Sustained macro‑economic pressure, weak on‑chain activity, failure to break $60k support | $45,000 – $55,000 |
| Technical‑Driven Reversal | RSI reaching extreme lows, weekly candlestick pattern flips, inflow from institutional buyers | $70,000 – $80,000 |
| Partial Recovery Followed by Consolidation | Mixed sentiment, selective institutional allocation, gradual regulatory clarity | $65,000 – $70,000 |
The “continuation” path aligns with analysts who caution that a four‑quarter loss streak in 2022 produced a deeper drawdown, suggesting that the current four‑month red run could extend if broader market conditions do not improve. Conversely, the “technical‑driven reversal” scenario leans on historic patterns where extended red streaks have been succeeded by sharp rebounds, as seen after the 2018‑19 slump.
Key Takeaways
- Five‑Month Red Streak: Bitcoin is poised to log its fifth consecutive monthly loss, the longest such sequence since 2018.
- Historical Rebound Patterns: Past five‑month declines have been followed by sizable positive returns, but the timing and magnitude vary.
- Technical Signals Diverge: While the monthly RSI is at historically low levels—often a bullish sign—the absence of a prior overbought phase makes the upcoming move less predictable.
- Weekly Momentum Matters: Five straight weekly bearish candles echo 2022’s prolonged downtrend, indicating that price pressure may still be building.
- Potential Bottom Near $60k: The 15‑month low of $60,000 serves as a pivotal support zone; breaking below could push Bitcoin into a deeper correction.
- March May Offer a Glimpse of Hope: Data hints that March could close in the green, providing a short‑term cushion before larger trends assert themselves.
Outlook
Investors should remain vigilant, monitoring both macro indicators (inflation trends, regulatory developments) and on‑chain metrics (hashrate, transaction volume) for signals that could confirm or refute the historical rebound narrative. While history suggests a reversal may be on the horizon, the current market environment, as highlighted by Sykodelic, may not replicate past bear‑cycle dynamics, leaving the true bottom—and the timing of any recovery—open to interpretation.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-monthly-losses-break-records-but-history-says-a-turnaround-is-brewing?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
