Crypto Must Be Indispensable If Market‑Structure Bill Stalls, Warns Bitwise
By [Your Name] – Jan. 28, 2026
Washington’s pending crypto‑market‑structure legislation could shape the industry’s trajectory for the next several years. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, argues that a failure to secure the bill would force the sector to embed itself in everyday American finance or risk a stark policy reversal under a future administration.
The legislative backdrop
Two Senate committees—the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee—are currently marking up a bill intended to clarify the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in overseeing digital assets. The proposal, often linked to the CLARITY Act, has been delayed as lawmakers negotiate bipartisan amendments, including ethics safeguards and restrictions on stable‑coin yield products.
If enacted, the bill would solidify the relatively pro‑crypto regulatory climate that has developed over the past few years, turning informal guidance into statutory certainty. Conversely, a stalemate could open the door for a future administration to roll back the current approach.
Hougan’s three‑year window
In a memo circulated to Bitwise’s investors on Monday, Hougan outlined a strategic timeline that hinges on the bill’s fate. He notes that the United States will have roughly three years—coinciding with the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term ending in 2029—to demonstrate that digital assets are no longer a fringe novelty but a functional component of retail payments, savings, and institutional finance.
“If, by 2029, the average consumer is routinely using stablecoins for everyday purchases and tokenized equities have become a standard investment vehicle, lawmakers are likely to codify supportive legislation regardless of which party holds the White House,” Hougan wrote, emphasizing the importance of real‑world adoption as a hedge against political uncertainty.
Market implications: two divergent paths
Hougan cautions that the bill’s outcome will generate markedly different market dynamics:
| Scenario | Expected Market Behaviour |
|---|---|
| Bill passes (in a version acceptable to the industry) | Anticipated sharp price appreciation as investors price in regulatory certainty and the expectation that stablecoins, tokenized securities, and other crypto services will expand under a clear legal framework. |
| Bill stalls or fails | A “wait‑and‑see” environment emerges. Prices will likely remain subdued until tangible adoption milestones are reached, as investors demand proof that the sector can thrive without legislative guarantees. |
In the bullish scenario, the legislation would act as a catalyst, encouraging capital inflows and accelerating product development. In the alternative, the industry would need to rely on demonstrated usage—such as widespread payroll‑denominated stablecoins or mainstream brokerage platforms offering tokenized assets—to sustain investor confidence.
Why the stakes are high
- Regulatory certainty vs. regulatory vacuum: A statutory framework reduces the risk of abrupt policy shifts that could disrupt business models.
- Political risk: A future administration less sympathetic to crypto could impose stricter rules, potentially affecting everything from AML compliance to the permissibility of certain financial products.
- Investor sentiment: Market participants often price regulatory risk heavily; clear rules can lower the “risk premium” attached to crypto assets.
Key takeaways
- Legislative momentum remains fragile: The Senate’s bipartisan negotiations are ongoing, with significant amendments still under discussion.
- Three‑year adoption deadline: The industry has a limited window to prove its utility to the broader public and financial system before political dynamics could change.
- Two possible market trajectories: Passage of the bill likely fuels a rapid price rally, while failure could tether price growth to concrete adoption metrics.
- Strategic focus for firms: Companies should prioritize partnerships that embed stablecoins and tokenized assets into everyday financial services, thereby building the “indispensability” Hougan stresses.
As the Senate continues its markup process, market participants will be watching both the legislative developments and the pace of consumer‑level crypto integration. Whether the sector’s future is shaped by law or by genuine adoption will largely depend on how quickly and effectively the industry can move from the periphery to the core of American financial life.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-needs-indispensable-legislation-fails-bitwise?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
