Coinbase’s USDC‑Related Revenue Could Surge Up to Seven‑Fold, Bloomberg Says
Bloomberg Intelligence projects that a rapid uptake of USDC for payments could lift the exchange’s stable‑coin earnings by as much as 700 %.
The upside in plain numbers
Coinbase’s latest shareholder letter disclosed that the exchange earned roughly $1.35 billion from stable‑coin activities in 2025, up from $911 million the year before. The fourth quarter alone contributed $364 million, driven largely by interest earned on USDC reserves held by the platform. At present, stable‑coin income accounts for about 19 % of Coinbase’s total revenue.
Bloomberg Intelligence, which tracks the firm’s financials, warns that this contribution could multiply anywhere between two and seven times if USDC gains wider acceptance as a payment vehicle. The estimate hinges on the speed at which merchants, fintechs and consumers adopt the Circle‑issued stable‑coin for everyday transactions.
Why USDC is uniquely positioned
USDC has become the market‑leader in transaction volume. In 2025, total stable‑coin flow hit a record $33 trillion, with USDC responsible for roughly $18.3 trillion of that amount—surpassing rival USDT in sheer transaction value, even though Tether still leads on market capitalization.
The revenue boost for Coinbase would stem chiefly from the interest margin on the pooled USDC reserves that the exchange holds on behalf of its users. Unlike volatile trading fees, this interest income is a high‑margin, relatively predictable stream.
Regulatory headwinds
The prospective revenue surge arrives amid a contentious regulatory environment. The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, bans stable‑coin issuers from paying any yield to holders, a measure backed by the banking lobby that fears capital flight to crypto‑based deposits.
While the act directly targets issuers like Circle, it leaves a loophole for “non‑issuer affiliates,” such as exchanges, to redistribute a portion of the interest earnings to users as rewards. The CLARITY Act—currently moving through the Senate—aims to close that gap. Draft language could bar Coinbase from offering any USDC‑linked rewards, effectively forcing the exchange to retain a larger share of Circle’s interest revenue.
Coinbase’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, has already signaled opposition to the CLARITY provisions that would restrict reward programs. In a recent shareholder call, he noted that a ban on rewards would actually increase the profitability of the stable‑coin line for the exchange, even though it would eliminate the yield benefit for customers.
Analyst perspective
- Revenue diversification – If USDC payment adoption accelerates, the stable‑coin line could become a more stable pillar of Coinbase’s earnings, mitigating the impact of trading‑fee volatility and recent net losses (the firm posted a $667 million loss in Q4 2025).
- Regulatory risk – The outcome of the CLARITY Act will be pivotal. A strict ban on rewards could tighten the revenue model but also raise questions about user attraction and competitive positioning against other platforms that may still offer yield‑based incentives.
- Market dynamics – USDC’s dominance in transaction volume suggests a structural shift toward stable‑coins for everyday commerce. Should this trend continue, the upside projected by Bloomberg Intelligence becomes increasingly plausible.
Key takeaways
- Stable‑coin income already represents a sizable slice of Coinbase’s revenue (≈19 % in 2025) and has been growing steadily.
- Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts a 2‑7× increase in that stream if USDC sees broader usage in payments.
- Regulatory developments, especially the CLARITY Act, could reshape how much of the interest earnings Coinbase can pass on to users, influencing both profitability and customer experience.
- The next few months will be critical: legislative decisions and the pace of USDC adoption will determine whether Coinbase can capitalize on this potential revenue windfall or must adapt to tighter yield restrictions.
As stable‑coins cement their role in the digital payments ecosystem, Coinbase’s ability to navigate both market opportunities and regulatory constraints will likely dictate the trajectory of its earnings in the coming years.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-usdc-revenue-could-7x-as-payments-grow-bloomberg-says?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
