Circle’s USDC Surpasses Tether’s USDT in Adjusted YTD Transaction Volume, Mizuho Says
Tokyo, 13 March 2026 – Japanese investment bank Mizuho released a research note on Friday indicating that Circle’s USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in year‑to‑date (YTD) transaction volume for the first time since 2019. The shift, which the analysts say could signal a change in the stable‑coin hierarchy, prompted Mizuho to raise its price target for Circle’s publicly‑listed shares from $100 to $120.
Volume figures
- USDC: roughly $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume YTD.
- USDT: about $1.3 trillion over the same period.
The data translates to a 64 % share of total stable‑coin transaction volume for USDC, reversing a decade‑long pattern in which USDT consistently commanded the larger share (2019‑2025).
Market‑cap contrast
Despite the volume lead, USDT remains the dominant stablecoin by market capitalization, valued at ≈ $184 billion, compared with USDC’s ≈ $79 billion. The disparity underscores that market‑cap size does not automatically equate to day‑to‑day usage.
Impact on Circle’s equity
Circle went public on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025. Following Mizuho’s announcement, the stock showed only modest movement, suggesting that investors are still weighing the broader implications of the volume shift against other fundamentals such as revenue growth, regulatory risk, and competition.
Analyst commentary
Mizuho’s analysts stress that transaction volume is a more reliable indicator of “real‑world” adoption than market cap alone. “The stable‑coin that wins the everyday‑use battle will likely become the preferred medium for payments, remittances, and DeFi interactions,” the note reads.
Wider industry context
The stable‑coin landscape remains a focal point for regulators in Washington. The CLARITY Act, a digital‑asset market‑structure bill that passed the House, is stalled in the Senate amid debates over yield‑bearing stablecoins, ethical concerns, and tokenized equities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the Senate will prioritize voting‑requirement legislation, with little expectation of passing the market‑structure component before April.
Key takeaways
| Takeaway | Implication |
|---|---|
| USDC leads in YTD volume | Signals growing traction for Circle’s token in payment‑type use cases. |
| USDT retains market‑cap lead | Reflects entrenched liquidity and broader ecosystem integration. |
| Price target upgrade | Mizuho’s optimism may attract institutional investors to Circle stock. |
| Regulatory uncertainty persists | Ongoing legislative debate could affect stable‑coin yields and compliance costs. |
| Volume vs. market cap | Investors and developers may prioritize volume metrics when selecting a stablecoin for applications. |
Outlook
If USDC continues to expand its transaction footprint, it could solidify its position as the go‑to stablecoin for merchants, fintech platforms, and decentralized finance protocols. However, Tether’s sizable market cap and entrenched network effects still afford it considerable influence. Market participants will likely watch how the CLARITY Act evolves, as any regulatory shift could reshape the competitive dynamics between the two tokens.
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