How Gold, Bitcoin and Oil Have Performed Since President Trump’s Return to the White House
January 2025 – March 2026
The first year of President Donald Trump’s second term has been marked by a mix of inflation worries, a softer U.S. dollar and a succession of geopolitical headlines. Those forces have left very different footprints on three of the market’s most watched assets – gold, Bitcoin and crude oil. Below is a data‑driven look at how each instrument has moved, why the trajectories diverged, and what the trends may mean for investors focused on decentralized finance (DeFi) and crypto‑related strategies.
Gold: The Classic Safe‑Haven Rallied
| Metric (Jan 2025 → Mar 2026) | Approx. Change |
|---|---|
| Price per ounce | $2,941 → $5,300 |
| % Return | +≈80 % |
| Low during period | $2,857 |
| High during period | >$5,500 (all‑time peak) |
Gold’s climb has been the most straightforward of the three assets. The metal’s price jumped roughly 80 % over the past twelve months, moving from the low‑$3,000 range to above $5,000 per ounce, and even touching a record above $5,500 in early 2026.
Why the surge?
Analysts point to a confluence of inflation expectations, heightened geopolitical risk and a weakening U.S. dollar. Jonathan Rose, CEO of BlockTrust IRA, noted that the “America First” agenda has pushed markets away from sentiment‑driven trading toward fundamentals, with gold benefiting as an “asset that does not depend on leverage or liquidity cycles.” Sid Powell, head of Maple, echoed the sentiment, saying that gold historically draws demand whenever policy uncertainty rises.
The rally also found expression on blockchain. Tokenized gold products crossed the $4 billion market‑cap milestone earlier this year, giving DeFi participants a way to gain exposure without holding physical bullion.
Takeaway: Gold continues to act as a traditional hedge, and its digital‑asset derivatives are gaining traction among crypto‑savvy investors.
Bitcoin: Volatility Over Performance
| Metric (Jan 2025 → Mar 2026) | Approx. Change |
|---|---|
| Price (average) | $95,740 → $69,000 |
| % Return | –≈25 % |
| Low during period | $74,000 (Apr 2025) |
| High during period | $124,773 (Oct 2025) |
| Notable intra‑year peak | $108,500 on Inauguration Day |
Bitcoin’s year‑long story is one of sharp swings rather than steady gains. After opening the year near $96 k, the cryptocurrency rallied to a record $124,773 in October 2025, only to retreat to the $69 k‑$70 k band by March 2026—a net decline of about 25 %.
The asset’s volatility was amplified by the October‑10, 2025, derivatives crash, which erased roughly $20 billion of leveraged positions – the largest liquidation event in crypto history. The event drained liquidity, altered the market‑structure, and broke the short‑term correlation that had previously linked Bitcoin’s moves with gold.
Marissa Kim, head of Asset Management at Abra, described the shift as “a breakdown of old monetary and market cycles,” noting that Bitcoin’s performance is now being driven more by macro‑economic dislocation than by the “debasement trade” that once aligned it with other inflation‑hedge assets.
Takeaway: Bitcoin remains a high‑beta instrument that can react dramatically to both macro‑policy shifts and internal market disruptions. DeFi strategies that rely on Bitcoin exposure need to factor in heightened liquidity risk.
Crude Oil: Geopolitics Over Macro Trends
| Metric (Jan 2025 → Mar 2026) | Approx. Level |
|---|---|
| U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) | $60 – $65 per barrel |
| Brent crude | $66 – $70 per barrel |
| Primary drivers | Iran‑U.S. nuclear talks, Venezuela unrest, U.S. tariff proposals |
Oil’s price action has been less about a single macro trend and more about a series of geopolitical developments. Throughout the past year, U.S. crude has hovered in the low‑to‑mid $60s, while Brent has edged toward $70, reflecting market sensitivity to potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and South America.
Arrash Yasavolian, founder and CEO of Vanta, highlighted that oil “got swept into the same reflation tape at different points,” but its price trajectory remains primarily dictated by supply‑side news rather than a broad inflation narrative. The Trump administration’s recent push to raise tariffs to 15 % – following a Supreme Court ruling that declared his emergency tariffs illegal – has added another layer of uncertainty for global growth, indirectly influencing oil demand forecasts.
Takeaway: Oil’s price dynamics continue to be driven by geopolitical risk premiums. For crypto investors, oil‑linked DeFi products (e.g., tokenized oil or energy‑backed stablecoins) will likely exhibit volatility tied to political events more than to traditional macro‑economic cycles.
The U.S. Dollar: The Quiet Backdrop
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell roughly 8 % over the same period, sliding from above 106 in February 2025 to around 97.7 in March 2026. A weaker dollar typically bolsters commodity prices – an effect that has helped both gold and oil. It also makes alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin relatively cheaper for non‑U.S. investors, though the net impact on Bitcoin has been mixed due to the aforementioned market‑structure shock.
Key Takeaways for DeFi and Crypto Investors
| Insight | Implication |
|---|---|
| Gold’s rally is anchored in inflation fears and a soft dollar. | Tokenized gold platforms can serve as relatively stable collateral in DeFi lending protocols. |
| Bitcoin’s performance is decoupled from gold after the October‑2025 derivatives crash. | Strategies that hedge Bitcoin exposure with gold may no longer provide reliable risk mitigation. |
| Oil remains geopolitically driven. | Energy‑backed tokens or synthetic oil derivatives will likely be sensitive to policy and conflict news rather than monetary policy alone. |
| Dollar weakness underpins commodity gains. | A declining DXY may continue to support hard‑asset yields, but investors should monitor fiscal policy moves (e.g., tariff proposals) that could reverse the trend. |
| Market fragmentation is increasing. | Asset‑class specific drivers are becoming more pronounced, suggesting that diversified, cross‑asset DeFi portfolios should be re‑balanced more frequently. |
Outlook
If the “America First” policy continues to generate fiscal and trade uncertainties, the dollar may stay under pressure, keeping gold and oil in a supportive environment. Bitcoin, however, appears to be entering a new regime where internal market dynamics—particularly liquidity and derivatives exposure—play an outsized role. For participants in the DeFi ecosystem, the next 12‑month window will likely demand a sharper focus on asset‑specific risks and the growing integration of traditional commodities with blockchain‑based financial products.
Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/how-gold-bitcoin-and-oil-have-performed-since-trump-took-office
