JP Morgan Quant Strategist Signals Long‑Term Preference for Bitcoin Over Gold
By [Your Name] – February 5 2026
A contrarian view is emerging from within the traditional finance sector as JP Morgan’s quantitative research team highlights Bitcoin’s relative attractiveness compared with gold. In a recent internal note, senior strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argues that the world’s leading cryptocurrency is undervalued and, on a risk‑adjusted basis, now appears more compelling than the long‑standing safe‑haven metal.
The data behind the claim
- Liquidity pressure is modest – Despite Bitcoin’s steep price decline this week, the total volume of liquidations has been relatively contained, indicating that market participants are not aggressively exiting positions.
- Volatility convergence – Panigirtzoglou points to the Bitcoin‑to‑gold volatility ratio, which has slipped to its lowest level on record. Historically, Bitcoin’s price swings have been several times those of gold; the current ratio suggests a narrowing gap.
- Performance divergence – Over the past twelve months, gold has slipped about 3 % while Bitcoin is down roughly 13 % on the same day, widening the absolute performance gap but compressing the volatility differential.
The analyst’s assessment is supported by recent coverage in Yahoo Finance, which noted that gold’s price swings have surged past Bitcoin’s for the first time in years, a phenomenon driven largely by heightened uncertainty in commodities markets.
Context: A broader underperformance trend
Bitcoin’s lag behind gold is not a new development. Since the Biden administration took office in January 2025, the precious metal has rallied close to 80 % while Bitcoin has fallen about 37 % over the same period. Retail crypto traders have voiced frustration at the disparity, noting that gold’s rally has been sustained by institutional inflows that have yet to materialise for digital assets.
Willy Woo, a prominent Bitcoin analyst, has highlighted structural headwinds that may be delaying sovereign and fiduciary adoption of the cryptocurrency. In a January 25 tweet, he referenced the limited track record of Bitcoin—just 17 years, a fraction of the history of many sovereign debt instruments—and the perceived risk of future quantum‑computing breakthroughs that could jeopardise cryptographic security.
Why a JP Morgan strategist is bullish
Panigirtzoglou’s optimism derives from several factors that differentiate Bitcoin from gold on a long‑term basis:
| Factor | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Supply elasticity | Central banks can influence output; new mines add physical gold. | Fixed supply of 21 million BTC, with a predictable issuance schedule. |
| Store‑of‑value narrative | Backed by centuries of use and legal tender status. | Emerging narrative as “digital gold” with growing acceptance in corporate treasury strategies. |
| Correlation profile | Historically moves with inflation expectations and fiat currency weakness. | Shows low to negative correlation with equities and commodities, offering diversification. |
| Technology‑driven demand | Limited to industrial and jewelry uses. | Potential for network effects, decentralized finance (DeFi) integration, and programmable money. |
From a quantitative perspective, the reduced volatility ratio suggests that Bitcoin may now deliver comparable returns with less price turbulence—a key metric for risk‑averse institutional investors.
Market reaction and outlook
The commentary has sparked modest chatter on institutional trading desks and on DeFi platforms where “real‑world assets” are increasingly tokenised. While the immediate market response was muted—Bitcoin’s price continued to slide—analysts note that such strategic shifts often play out over months rather than days.
Potential catalysts that could validate Panigirtzoglou’s outlook include:
- Regulatory clarity – Continued progress on crypto‑friendly regulations in major economies could unlock larger treasury allocations.
- Institutional on‑ramps – Expansion of custodial services and the launch of Bitcoin‑linked exchange‑traded products (ETPs) may lower entry barriers.
- Macro‑economic dynamics – A slowdown in inflation or a shift in monetary policy away from ultra‑loose stimulus could diminish gold’s appeal while keeping Bitcoin’s scarcity advantage intact.
Conversely, any major security breach, a breakthrough in quantum decryption, or a severe downturn in the broader crypto ecosystem could re‑assert gold’s dominance.
Key takeaways
- Volatility gap narrowing: Bitcoin’s price volatility is now near historic lows relative to gold, indicating a potential risk‑adjusted advantage.
- Liquidity remains resilient: Despite a sharp price decline, liquidation activity has been limited, suggesting continued confidence among some traders.
- Long‑term narrative shift: JP Morgan’s quantitative team sees Bitcoin as a viable long‑term store of value, possibly eclipsing gold for institutional portfolios.
- Structural challenges persist: Adoption hurdles—regulatory, technological, and perceptual—still limit sovereign and large‑institution participation.
- Watch the catalysts: Regulatory developments, institutional product launches, and macro‑economic trends will be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin can sustain a gold‑alternative role.
The analysis reflects publicly available data and internal commentary from JP Morgan’s research department. Readers should consider their own risk tolerance and consult professional advisors before making investment decisions.
Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/jp-morgan-strategist-prefers-bitcoin-to-gold-long-term
