Bitcoin Bulls Target Three Key Barriers – Turning Resistance Into Support May Define the Next Market Phase
By [Your Name] – Cointelegraph
Date: [Insert Date]
Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently wrestling with three overlapping resistance zones on its weekly chart. Analysts argue that a decisive close above these levels could convert them into support, potentially setting the stage for a new bullish cycle. History, however, suggests the rally may not materialise until the spring months.
Current Price Action
- Price near $67,720 – The BTC/USD pair has settled just below the $68,000 mark after being rebuffed by the $70,000 psychological ceiling on Wednesday.
- Three stacked resistance points – The 200‑week exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $68,330, the former 2021 all‑time high at $69,000, and the round‑number barrier at $70,000 are all pressing down on the market.
TradingView data shows the cryptocurrency hovering in a tight range, with the weekly candle still open beneath the 200‑week EMA. The inability to close above this long‑term trend line has kept momentum restrained.
Analyst Views
- Captain Faibik (Crypto analyst) stresses that a weekly close above the 200‑week EMA is the “gateway” for the bulls. In a recent X post, he projected that clearing this threshold could open the path toward $80 k and labelled March as “potentially bullish”.
- Alex Carter highlighted the historical precedent: the current sequence of five consecutive down months mirrors the latter part of the 2018 bear market. Back then, a five‑month slump was followed by a rapid succession of green candles and a four‑fold price rally.
Both analysts suggest that if Bitcoin can flip the identified resistance zones into support, the market may see a swing back to higher levels—potentially as early as the end of March, but more likely in April when selling pressure shows signs of exhaustion.
Historical Context
- Five straight red months – February 2024 closed with Bitcoin down 14 %, marking the fifth consecutive losing month. The last occurrence of a five‑month decline stretched from late 2018 into early 2019, a period that culminated in a 317 % gain over the next five months.
- Key price level to watch – The cost‑basis of investors who entered during the 18‑ to 24‑month window stands at about $74,500. Breaking this level is viewed by several market watchers as a possible catalyst for ending the current bear phase.
What’s at Stake
If Bitcoin manages to close above the 200‑week EMA and sustain price above the $68,330‑$70,000 corridor, the following scenarios could unfold:
- Support formation – The resistance zones may become a new floor, limiting downside risk.
- Accelerated upside – Technical models anticipate a bounce toward the $80 k region, with a March‑or‑April timeline.
- Market sentiment shift – A successful flip could restore confidence among risk‑averse traders, prompting fresh inflows.
Conversely, failure to breach these levels may extend the current downtrend, keeping the market in a defensive posture through the remainder of the quarter.
Key Takeaways
- Three overlapping resistance zones – 200‑week EMA (~$68,330), 2021 ATH ($69,000), and the $70,000 psychological barrier are currently capping Bitcoin’s weekly price.
- Weekly close above the EMA is critical – Analysts say a candle closing above $68,330 would mark the transition from resistance to support.
- February’s 14 % decline marks five red months – The longest streak of consecutive losses since the 2018 bear market.
- Historical patterns hint at a rebound – Past five‑month downtrends were followed by strong green-month streaks and multi‑fold rallies, suggesting a possible reversal in April.
- $74,500 cost‑basis level – Breaking this figure could signal the end of the current bear market cycle.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any trading decisions. Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-five-month-losing-streak-may-not-end-in-march?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
