Long‑Term Bitcoin Holders Move Far More Coin Than Net‑Change Metrics Reveal – Over 370,000 BTC Exited Their Wallets in the Last 30 Days
By [Your Name] – January 30 2026
Overview
On‑chain analytics from Glassnode show that Bitcoin’s long‑term holders (LTHs) have been far more active than traditional “net‑position‑change” figures suggest. While most reporting has highlighted a net outflow of roughly 144,000 BTC over the past month, a deeper look at gross spending indicates that LTHs collectively transferred more than 370,000 BTC in the same period – an average of about 12,000 BTC per day.
How the Numbers Diverge
| Metric | Approx. Amount (30‑day) | What It Captures |
|---|---|---|
| Gross LTH spending | 370,000 BTC | All BTC sent out by addresses classified as long‑term holders. |
| Maturation to LTH | 226,000 BTC | Coins that moved from short‑term holder (STH) status into the LTH bucket. |
| Net LTH position change | –144,000 BTC | Difference between the two flows (spending vs. maturation). |
Glassnode explains that the “net position change” metric is a balance sheet figure: it subtracts the amount of newly‑matured LTH coins from the total amount LTHs spend. When maturation rates are high, as they have been this month, the net figure can mask the true volume of activity happening on‑chain.
Market Context
The heightened on‑chain activity unfolded during a period of elevated market volatility. Bitcoin briefly slipped to just under $81,000, its lowest price since November 2025, as equities and gold recorded steep declines in U.S. morning trading. While traditional markets recovered later in the day, crypto assets remained under pressure, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sliding to an “extreme fear” reading of 16.
Additional Glassnode data underscores the broader shift in market sentiment: the 90‑day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Realized Profit/Loss Ratio fell from a July‑2025 peak of 19 to 1.7, suggesting that realized gains have largely been erased and that investors are increasingly frustrated.
Analysis1. Net Metrics Can Be Misleading
- The disparity between gross outflows and net‑change highlights the importance of looking beyond single‑dimension metrics. Market participants who rely only on net LTH distribution may underestimate liquidity pressures and the speed at which long‑term capital is being redeployed.
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Maturation Accelerates Flow Dynamics
- An influx of 226,000 BTC transitioning from short‑term to long‑term status suggests a recent wave of “hodling” behavior that has now begun to unwind. When these newly‑matured coins are added to the pool of spendable LTH assets, the total volume of transactions spikes, even if the net balance appears modest.
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Potential Impact on Price Stability
- The daily average of 12,000 BTC exiting LTH wallets represents a sizable amount of sell‑side pressure. If a meaningful portion of these coins reaches exchanges, it could exacerbate price declines, especially in a market already experiencing “extreme fear.”
- Investor Sentiment Deteriorates
- The collapse of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio to near‑break‑even levels indicates that many long‑term investors are either realizing losses or moving assets into cash or other stores of value. This aligns with the heightened fear index and may presage further volatility.
Key Takeaways
- Gross on‑chain flows matter: Over 370,000 BTC were spent by long‑term holders in the last month, far exceeding the net‑change figure of 144,000 BTC.
- Maturation drives the gap: Approximately 226,000 BTC moved into the long‑term holder classification, inflating gross spending while buffering net outflows.
- Market pressure persists: Bitcoin’s dip to the $81k region and an “extreme fear” sentiment score suggest that the sell‑side pressure from LTH activity could keep price volatility elevated.
- Profit‑loss dynamics are worsening: The 90‑day Realized P/L Ratio’s plunge to 1.7 signals that realized gains have largely been erased, reinforcing a bearish bias among investors.
Outlook
Analysts will likely monitor both gross and net LTH metrics closely as the market navigates the upcoming Bitcoin options expiry and any macro‑economic developments. If the current maturation rate sustains, the net outflow figure could remain modest while the underlying selling pressure stays substantial, potentially leading to further price corrections.
Reporting by CryptoPotato, data sourced from Glassnode.
Source: https://cryptopotato.com/net-metrics-miss-the-real-story-as-long-term-holders-spend-370000-btc-monthly/
