Michael Saylor downplays quantum‑computing threat to Bitcoin, calls it a long‑term, manageable issue
February 23 2026 – CoinDesk
In a recent episode of Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast, MicroStrategy chief executive Michael Saylor argued that the prospect of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography is still far off and, if it ever materializes, can be addressed through coordinated upgrades across the global digital ecosystem.
Saylor’s main points
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Timing of the threat – Saylor said the consensus among security experts is that a functional, large‑scale quantum computer capable of undermining current elliptic‑curve cryptography is likely more than ten years away. He added that, should a breakthrough occur, the response would be swift and coordinated, involving banks, internet service providers, device manufacturers, artificial‑intelligence platforms and blockchain protocols alike.
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Readiness to migrate – According to Saylor, the transition to “post‑quantum‑resistant” algorithms is already on the radar of the cybersecurity community. He expects that the shift will be predictable and that the Bitcoin network, whose software is designed to evolve, will be upgraded in lockstep with other critical infrastructure.
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Crypto’s security posture – The MicroStrategy CEO highlighted that the cryptocurrency sector maintains some of the most rigorous security practices, citing multi‑factor authentication, hardware security modules and the high cost of moving funds as safeguards that already exceed those used in traditional finance.
- Leadership in response – “The crypto community will likely be the first to recognize and react to a genuine quantum threat,” Saylor said, predicting that developers, exchanges and custodians will drive any necessary protocol changes.
Context: The broader quantum debate
Saylor’s optimistic outlook contrasts with more cautious voices in the industry. Ethereum co‑founder Vitalik Buterin has warned that, based on forecasts from the Metaculus platform, there is a roughly 20 % probability a quantum computer capable of breaking current cryptographic schemes could appear before 2030, with a median estimate around 2040. In a recent address at Devconnect in Buenos Aires, Buterin urged the Ethereum community to begin a transition to quantum‑resistant primitives within the next few years, noting that the current elliptic‑curve schemes underpinning both Ethereum and Bitcoin could become vulnerable before the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
The Ethereum Foundation has responded by adding quantum‑readiness to its 2026 security roadmap and establishing a dedicated post‑quantum research team, signalling a more proactive stance on the issue.
Market impact and speculation
The quantum‑risk narrative has occasionally surfaced in market commentary. In January, venture‑capitalist Nic Carter suggested that Bitcoin’s recent under‑performance—dropping from a high of over $126,000 in October 2025 to around $64,000 at the time of writing—might be partly driven by investor anxiety over potential quantum vulnerabilities. However, analytics firm Glassnode’s James Check countered that while preparing for quantum threats is sensible, it is not the primary driver of the price decline.
MicroStrategy’s position
MicroStrategy, the firm led by Saylor, continues to expand its Bitcoin treasury. The company announced a purchase of 592 BTC for roughly $39.8 million, marking its 100th acquisition since it adopted a Bitcoin‑focused treasury strategy in August 2020. The firm now holds 717,722 BTC, bought at an average price of $67,286 per coin, representing an investment of approximately $54.56 billion.
Analysis
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Technical feasibility – Quantum computers capable of solving the discrete logarithm problem (the mathematical basis of Bitcoin’s signatures) would need to sustain thousands of stable qubits, a milestone that has not yet been demonstrated. Most experts agree that such hardware remains a decade or more away.
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Upgrade pathway – Bitcoin’s development process already includes the possibility of hard‑fork upgrades. Proposals such as BIP‑360, which explores post‑quantum signatures, suggest that a transition could be technically feasible within a multi‑year window, provided there is community consensus and sufficient testing.
- Risk perception vs. reality – Market sentiment may overreact to speculative quantum‑risk headlines, but the actual probability of an imminent threat appears low. Nevertheless, the visibility of the issue is increasing, prompting both Bitcoin and Ethereum communities to allocate research resources to quantum‑resistant cryptography.
Key takeaways
- Quantum threat timeline – Most security professionals, including Saylor, view a credible quantum attack on Bitcoin as a medium‑to‑long‑term concern, likely more than ten years away.
- Preparedness – The Bitcoin protocol is designed to accommodate upgrades, and the broader digital ecosystem (banks, ISPs, device makers) would likely implement post‑quantum cryptography in a coordinated effort if needed.
- Crypto sector’s security edge – Multi‑factor and hardware‑based safeguards give the cryptocurrency community a higher baseline security posture than many legacy financial systems.
- Industry divergence – While Saylor downplays immediate risk, figures like Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation are actively planning for a post‑quantum transition within the next few years.
- Market narrative – Quantum‑computing concerns have entered market discourse, but current data suggest they are not the dominant factor affecting Bitcoin’s price.
As the quantum computing field matures, both Bitcoin and its broader ecosystem will continue to monitor developments closely. For now, industry leaders such as Michael Saylor remain confident that any eventual quantum challenge can be met through existing upgrade mechanisms and collective action.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/saylor-says-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin-is-more-than-10-years-out-expects-coordinated-global-upgrade-if-risk-emerges?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
