Prediction‑Market TVL Surpasses $550 M, Polymarket Holds $330 M Lead
The combined value locked in crypto‑based prediction platforms topped the previous all‑time high set during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to the latest DefiLlama data.
A New Benchmark for On‑Chain Forecasting
DefiLlama’s metrics show that total value locked (TVL) across decentralized prediction‑market protocols climbed above $550 million this week. The surge eclipses the sector’s prior peak, which was driven by heightened activity surrounding the 2024 U.S. election cycle.
- Polymarket remains the dominant protocol, with roughly $330 million locked at the time of reporting.
- OPINION follows with about $155 million in TVL.
- Predict Fun trails with $21.7 million.
The rise in locked capital suggests renewed confidence in on‑chain event‑outcome markets, even as off‑chain platforms continue to attract large trade volumes.
Trading Volume: Kalshi Takes the Lead
While Polymarket leads in TVL, the bulk of weekly trading activity belongs to Kalshi, an off‑chain exchange that is gradually building a bridge to blockchain infrastructure.
- Weekly notional volume: $2.2 billion – the highest in the sector.
- Daily record: More than $535 million on 18 January, the single‑day peak to date.
Polymarket, despite its sizable locked value, ranks third in weekly volume with about $786 million. The disparity between TVL and volume highlights the coexistence of two different market dynamics: deep liquidity on on‑chain platforms versus high‑velocity trading on off‑chain venues that are beginning to integrate with decentralized data feeds.
Fee Structure Evolves: Polymarket’s First Revenue Stream
Historically, Polymarket operated without charging fees. In early January the platform introduced taker‑only fees on selected markets, marking its first move toward direct monetisation.
- Highest daily revenue: $109,300 on 12 January—its record to date.
- Current daily revenue: Dropped to under $75,000 by 21 January.
Even with the modest earnings, Polymarket now posts the second‑largest weekly revenue among prediction markets, generating roughly $550,000 over the past seven days. OPINION still leads the revenue race with about $1.5 million for the same period.
Kalshi does not disclose fee income to DefiLlama, but external estimates suggest the platform earned over $263 million in fees for 2025, largely from its popular sports‑betting markets.
Analysis & Outlook
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Capitalisation vs. Activity: The uncoupling of TVL and volume underscores that deep liquidity does not automatically translate to high trade turnover. Off‑chain platforms like Kalshi can attract massive betting volumes without comparable locked capital, while on‑chain protocols retain value through user deposits and escrowed positions.
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Monetisation Maturity: Polymarket’s shift to a fee‑based model indicates a broader industry trend toward sustainable revenue generation. Early revenue spikes followed by a quick pull‑back suggest that fee structures will need refinement to balance user adoption with profitability.
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Regulatory Context: The 2024 U.S. election previously acted as a catalyst for on‑chain speculation. With that driver receding, the sector is now testing whether other event categories—sports, macro‑economics, and entertainment—can sustain growth. Kalshi’s success in sports markets points to a possible template for future on‑chain offerings.
- Cross‑Chain Integration: Kalshi’s ongoing partnership with oracle providers, aimed at bringing real‑world outcomes onto the blockchain, may erode the on‑chain/off‑chain divide. Should these bridges mature, we could see a consolidation of TVL and volume under a unified ecosystem.
Key Takeaways
- TVL Milestone: Combined locked value in crypto prediction markets exceeded $550 M, a new all‑time high.
- Polymarket Dominance: Holds the largest share of TVL at $330 M, but trails in trading volume.
- Volume Leader: Kalshi posted $2.2 B weekly notional volume, with a daily record of $535 M.
- Revenue Shift: Polymarket’s introduction of taker fees generated a peak daily revenue of $109 k, now stabilising under $75 k.
- Revenue Rankings: OPINION leads weekly revenue ($1.5 M), Polymarket follows ($550 k). Kalshi’s fee earnings are estimated at $263 M for 2025.
- Future Drivers: Sports markets, improved oracle integrations, and refined fee models are likely to shape the next growth phase.
As prediction markets continue to navigate regulatory scrutiny and user incentives, the latest TVL surge signals that capital is still flowing into decentralized forecasting, even as trade volume finds its strongest expression on hybrid or off‑chain platforms.
Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/nfts-and-web3/crypto-prediction-markets-hit-tvl-all-time-high
