Senator Schiff Introduces the “DEATH BETS” Act to Ban War‑Related Prediction Contracts
Washington, D.C., March 11, 2026 – Democratic Senator Adam Schiff (CA) unveiled legislation on Tuesday that would prohibit federally regulated prediction‑market platforms from offering contracts tied to armed conflict, terrorism, assassinations, or the death of an individual. The bill, dubbed the DEATH BETS Act, seeks to amend the Commodity Exchange Act and extend the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) jurisdiction to bar such “death bets” from any exchange under its oversight.
What the legislation proposes
The proposed amendment would add a new prohibition clause to the Commodity Exchange Act, explicitly banning futures, options, and other derivative contracts that reference:
- Terrorist activities, assassinations, or wars, and any analogous events;
- The demise of a specific person.
The measure was referred to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry – where Senator Schiff serves – for further deliberation.
In a press release accompanying the introduction, Schiff warned that markets allowing participants to profit from violent outcomes create perverse incentives. He argued that such platforms could encourage the misuse of classified intelligence, jeopardize national security, and foster a “Wild West” trading environment. “The CFTC and Congress must make it unequivocally clear that betting on death and war is not permissible,” the senator said.
Recent controversies that sparked the bill
The timing of the DEATH BET S Act follows a series of high‑profile incidents involving cryptocurrency‑based prediction markets:
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U.S.–Israel‑Iran tensions – During the recent military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran, several war‑related contracts on platforms such as Polymarket experienced a surge in activity. Six wallets, all created in February, reportedly earned about $1 million by accurately forecasting a U.S. strike on Iran. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain documented a new wallet that spent roughly $33 k on a contract predicting U.S. forces would enter Iran by a specific Saturday, despite diminishing odds.
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Insider‑trading allegations – Israeli authorities arrested two individuals in February on suspicion of exploiting classified information about Israeli strikes on Iran to profit on Polymarket. Earlier, a Polymarket user allegedly made $400 k from a bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, placing the trade mere hours before the event unfolded.
- Legal challenges to prediction markets – Recent court rulings in Nevada have forced platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to halt trading on certain contracts, underscoring the regulatory uncertainty surrounding these markets.
These episodes have intensified calls for clearer regulatory guidance, especially as prediction markets increasingly intersect with blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems.
Potential impact on the crypto industry
If enacted, the DEATH BET S Act would:
- Restrict product offerings – Platforms that currently list war‑oriented contracts would need to remove or redesign them to comply with the new statutory language.
- Heighten compliance burdens – Exchanges would likely have to implement more robust monitoring systems to ensure prohibited contracts are not listed inadvertently.
- Influence market liquidity – The removal of high‑interest, event‑driven contracts could reduce trading volume on certain platforms, potentially affecting revenue streams.
- Set a precedent for broader regulation – By extending the CFTC’s authority to cover prediction contracts linked to violent events, the legislation could pave the way for additional oversight of other speculative crypto products.
Industry observers note that while the bill targets “death bets,” it may also prompt a broader reassessment of how prediction markets are structured and governed, especially when operating on public blockchains where anonymity and cross‑border participation complicate enforcement.
Key takeaways
| Takeaway | Implication |
|---|---|
| Legislative action – The DEATH BET S Act would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to ban war‑related and death‑centric prediction contracts. | Prediction‑market platforms will need to adapt their product catalogs to avoid prohibited contracts. |
| Regulatory focus – The CFTC’s oversight would expand to include these newly defined prohibitions. | Exchanges could face increased compliance and reporting requirements. |
| Recent market activity – High‑value trades on war‑related contracts have drawn scrutiny from both regulators and law‑enforcement agencies. | Demonstrates the real‑world stakes and potential for insider‑trading abuses. |
| Industry impact – Removal of “death bets” may lower trading volume but could improve the sector’s legitimacy. | May encourage platforms to shift toward non‑violent, data‑driven contracts. |
| Broader precedent – The measure could serve as a template for future rules governing speculative crypto products. | Sets a tone for stricter oversight of emergent DeFi derivatives. |
As the Senate committee reviews the proposal, stakeholders in the crypto and prediction‑market space will be watching closely for any indications of how the final legislation may reshape the landscape of speculative trading on blockchain platforms.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-senate-bill-targets-prediction-markets-on-war-and-assassinations?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
