XRP Poised for a Breakout? Analyst Highlights Bullish Ascending Channel
By Crypto News Desk – February 12 2026
Overview
Ripple’s native token, XRP, is currently hovering around $1.37, reflecting a 15 % slide in the past week and a 33 % decline over the last 30 days. Despite the recent weakness, a well‑known market analyst has pointed to the monthly price chart as a potential catalyst for a reversal. The analyst, known on X as “Arthur,” argues that XRP is trading within a long‑term ascending channel whose lower boundary—situated between $0.85 and $0.95—could serve as a strategic entry point for institutional capital that has yet to re‑engage fully with the asset.
Monthly Chart Structure
Arthur’s analysis tracks XRP month‑by‑month from March 2017 to the present, revealing an ascending channel that has been tested repeatedly over a nine‑year period. The channel’s support line now rests in the $0.85‑$0.95 range, roughly 30 % beneath the current price level. According to Arthur, this zone represents the “smart‑money” floor where large‑scale investors may re‑enter once confidence returns.
Key points from the chart:
| Metric | Observation |
|---|---|
| Channel support | $0.85–$0.95 (long‑term zone) |
| Current price | $1.37 |
| Historical volume spikes | Peak volume recorded Nov 2020 – Apr 2021; 2024 rally had ~¼ of that volume |
| Futures open interest (30‑day) | Decline of ~1.5–1.8 B XRP across major platforms (Bybit, Binance, Kraken) |
The shrinkage in futures open interest suggests that traders are closing leveraged positions rather than initiating new ones—a pattern often observed preceding a trend transition.
Macro Environment
Arthur does not rely on chart patterns alone. He cites five macro‑level developments that differentiate early 2026 from prior cycles:
- Regulatory clarity: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit against Ripple has concluded, offering greater certainty for the token’s legal status.
- RLUSD rollout: Ripple’s algorithmic stablecoin has entered broad market use, expanding the ecosystem’s utility.
- Institutional integrations: Recent announcements detail how major financial platforms are embedding Ripple’s payment infrastructure.
- Tokenization surge: A growing wave of asset tokenization projects is leveraging XRP’s ledger for settlement.
- Infrastructure upgrades: New bridge and liquidity solutions are being deployed, reducing friction for enterprise adopters.
Arthur emphasizes that technical analysis is ultimately driven by macro fundamentals, and in his view, the broader environment is turning positive for XRP.
Historical Context
XRP has demonstrated an ability to rebound sharply after prolonged downtrends:
- 2018‑2021: After trading near $0.30 throughout 2018, XRP surged to $1.70 in April 2021.
- 2022‑2024: The token found a floor around $0.35 in early 2022, then staged a rally that broke the $2 mark in late 2024.
- 2025: A breakout in mid‑2025 pushed XRP to an all‑time high of $3.65.
These cycles illustrate that significant price appreciation can follow periods of sustained low volatility and reduced speculative exposure.
Analyst Quote (paraphrased)
“The monthly structure, backed by macro trends and long‑term volume patterns, points to a potential entry zone for institutional participants,” Arthur wrote in a recent X thread. “The real capital has not yet returned; what we observed in 2024 was primarily whale‑level activity, not the broad institutional flow that can reshape a market.”
Key Takeaways
- Support Zone: The $0.85‑$0.95 range on the monthly chart is identified as a strong, historically tested support level.
- Volume Discrepancy: The 2024 price rally occurred on markedly lower volume than the 2020‑2021 peak, indicating limited institutional participation.
- Futures Data: A notable drop in XRP futures open interest across major exchanges signals a transition phase rather than continued bearish positioning.
- Macro Catalysts: Resolution of Ripple’s legal battles, the rollout of RLUSD, and expanding enterprise use cases collectively create a more favorable backdrop for price upside.
- Historical Precedent: Past cycles show XRP’s capacity to generate sizable rebounds after multi‑year consolidations.
Outlook
While the short‑term price action remains bearish, the confluence of a well‑defined ascending channel, diminishing speculative exposure, and supportive macro developments could set the stage for a new upward move. Market participants should monitor the $0.85‑$0.95 support band for potential institutional entry, while keeping an eye on volume trends and derivative positioning as early indicators of momentum shift.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cryptopotato.com/xrp-set-for-breakout-analyst-flags-bullish-channel/
