Bitcoin Poised for a Q1 “Bullish Pump,” While XRP Faces Legislative Uncertainty
By Ciaran Lyons – Cointelegraph
February 21 2026
Bitcoin’s Near‑Term Outlook
Veteran on‑chain analyst Willy Woo told Magazine that the price action of Bitcoin this year is shaping up as a short‑term bullish rally in the first quarter, even though the longer‑term trend remains bearish. Woo qualifies his view as “loosely held” and stresses that he has no crystal‑ball certainty.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $95,500, a 4.3 % gain over the past seven days according to CoinMarketCap. The analyst points to a six‑month decline in net inflows as the main factor that could cap the rally’s momentum.
Historically, January has been a soft month for the leading cryptocurrency, delivering an average gain of just over 4 % since 2013. By contrast, February and March have produced stronger returns of roughly 13 % and 12 %, respectively, based on data from CoinGlass. If the current uptick can be sustained through the end of the quarter, the price could test the $108 000 level that Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards highlighted as a plausible target. Edwards says a decisive close above $93 500 this week would confirm that the recent dip was a false‑out, a scenario that fellow analyst Rekt Capital deems “likely.”
A swift move to $108 k would erase more than $670 million of short‑position exposure, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to a breakout.
XRP Under the Shadow of the CLARITY Act
XRP’s price trajectory may encounter headwinds from the pending U.S. CLARITY Act. Swyftx analyst Pav Hundal warned that any unexpected outcome from the Senate’s markup process could pressure the token. The bill’s markup was postponed after criticism from industry figures—including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who argues the legislation concedes too much to traditional finance. Armstrong, however, expects a markup to occur in the coming weeks.
From a technical standpoint, XRP is currently trading near $2.06, down nearly 3 % over the last week. The token found buying interest around its 50‑day moving average, but attempts to break the 200‑day average near $2.39 have been rejected, suggesting sellers may become active again. Hundal notes that further upside is increasingly dependent on narrative support rather than pure price action, especially as spot demand has softened since mid‑December.
Nansen researcher Jake Kennis echoed the legislative risk and added that Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin—now holding a market cap of roughly $1.3 billion and rolling out in Japan via SBI—along with continued ETF inflows and the progress of Ripple’s National Trust Bank, could serve as positive catalysts if the regulatory environment stabilises.
Market Sentiment and Prediction Markets
Despite Bitcoin’s modest price rise, social‑media sentiment has grown more bearish, according to analytics firm Santiment. The platform observes that negative commentary often precedes bullish moves, as markets tend to move counter‑to‑retail mood. Supporting that view, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed back into “greed” territory (score 61) after a prolonged period of fear.
The Altcoin Season Index remains low (27/100), indicating investors are still favoring Bitcoin over other digital assets.
Prediction‑market data from Polymarket shows a 54 % chance that Bitcoin will close January above $100 k, with a 91 % probability of ending 2026 above the same threshold. The odds of revisiting the all‑time‑high region above $120 k sit at 54 %, while the more ambitious $200 k target carries only a 10 % probability. Conversely, a drop below $75 k is seen as a 63 % likelihood. For Ethereum, confidence has waned, with the probability of finishing the month above $3 600 falling to 36 %, and the odds of reaching $3 800 at just 16 %.
Key Takeaways
| Topic | Insight |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin Q1 outlook | Willy Woo sees a short‑term bullish push, but warns the longer‑term framework is still bearish. |
| Price target | If Bitcoin can hold above $93.5 k this week, a move toward $108 k becomes plausible, potentially wiping out large short positions. |
| Investor flows | Net inflows have been declining for six months, a factor that could limit the rally’s longevity. |
| XRP risk | Legislative uncertainty around the CLARITY Act and technical resistance near $2.39 may constrain upside. |
| Catalysts for XRP | Ripple’s RLUSD expansion, ETF inflows, and the National Trust Bank project could provide support if regulatory concerns ease. |
| Sentiment | Social‑media sentiment is turning bearish despite price gains; the Fear & Greed Index, however, signals growing bullishness. |
| Prediction markets | Over half the market believes Bitcoin will breach $100 k in January, but downside risk below $75 k remains significant. |
| Ethereum | Forecasts for ETH’s near‑term performance have softened, with lower confidence in a January rally. |
Analyst View:
The convergence of a historically strong Q1 for Bitcoin, technical confirmation near $93.5 k, and waning short‑position exposure creates a favorable environment for a brief price surge. Nonetheless, the broader macro‑trend of declining fiat inflows and the bearish longer‑term structure cautions against assuming the rally will persist beyond the quarter.
For XRP, the immediate focus will be on how the U.S. Senate proceeds with the CLARITY Act. Any deviation from market expectations could trigger a rapid sell‑off, while positive developments around Ripple’s ecosystem (RLUSD, ETFs, banking initiatives) may offset some legislative risk.
Investors should monitor both on‑chain metrics and regulatory headlines closely, as they continue to drive price dynamics across the crypto market.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-price-willy-woo-ether-crypto-price-xrp-clarity-act-trade-secrets/?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
