Willy Woo Flags Quantum‑Day Risk as a New Discount Driver for Bitcoin‑vs‑Gold Valuation
By [Your Name] – Cointelegraph
February 16 2026
On Monday, on‑chain analyst Willy Woo warned that growing awareness of a potential “Q‑Day” – the moment a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break the elliptic‑curve cryptography that underpins Bitcoin – is beginning to be priced into the cryptocurrency’s long‑term valuation relative to gold.
Quantum threat and “lost” bitcoins
Woo’s X post highlighted a specific vulnerability: roughly four million BTC, commonly referred to as “lost” coins, are held in addresses whose public keys are already exposed on the blockchain. If a quantum computer were able to reverse‑engineer private keys from those public keys, the coins could become spendable again, undermining a core narrative of Bitcoin’s scarcity.
According to research cited by Woo, the four million BTC represent about a quarter of the total supply. He estimates a 25 % probability that the Bitcoin community would agree to a hard‑fork freeze of those balances—a scenario that would clash with Bitcoin’s long‑standing principles of immutability and fungibility. Conversely, there is roughly a 75 % chance that the coins would remain untouched, leaving open the possibility that an amount of BTC equivalent to “eight years of enterprise accumulation” could re‑enter the market.
Impact on the BTC‑Gold price ratio
Woo argues that the prospect of a quantum‑induced supply shock is already reflected as a structural discount on Bitcoin when measured against gold. In his view, the BTC‑to‑gold ratio, which historically has shown a strong upward drift over multi‑year horizons, may now be flattened for the next five to fifteen years. A chart from Bitbo illustrating the recent decline in the BTC‑gold ratio accompanies the analysis.
The post‑quantum migration roadmap
Bitcoin developers and cryptographers contend that the network is not facing an imminent “doomsday” scenario. Instead of a single emergency hard fork, the community is discussing a phased migration to quantum‑resistant address formats and key‑management schemes. The transition is expected to span several years, allowing the ecosystem to adopt new standards without abruptly disrupting existing balances.
Even in a worst‑case timeline where quantum hardware arrives earlier than anticipated, experts such as Alex Gladstein (Chief Strategy Officer, Human Rights Foundation) suggest that any reclaimed “lost” coins would likely be seized by nation‑states or other large holders rather than dumped on open markets, mitigating immediate price pressure.
Quantum risk reaches mainstream investment circles
Woo’s caution comes at a time when Bitcoin is trading about 50 % below its all‑time high, and institutional investors are increasingly factoring quantum risk into their models. In January, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from his flagship “Greed & Fear” model and rotated the allocation into gold, explicitly citing the threat of “cryptographically relevant” quantum machines as a factor eroding Bitcoin’s store‑of‑value proposition for long‑term investors.
Key takeaways
| Takeaway | Implication |
|---|---|
| Quantum‑Day risk is now a priced factor | Market participants are discounting Bitcoin’s future upside relative to gold as a precaution against a possible quantum breakthrough. |
| Four million “lost” BTC are the most exposed | If quantum decryption becomes feasible, these coins could become spendable, representing up to 30 % of total supply. |
| Low probability of a hard‑fork freeze | With only a 25 % chance of network consensus on freezing the vulnerable balances, the majority of the supply may remain at risk. |
| Long‑term BTC‑gold ratio may flatten | The historical trend of Bitcoin out‑performing gold could be muted for the next 5‑15 years, reshaping portfolio allocations. |
| Post‑quantum migration is a multi‑year roadmap | Developers are planning gradual upgrades rather than a sudden hard fork, buying time to implement quantum‑resistant cryptography. |
| Institutional sentiment shifting | Some traditional asset managers are scaling back Bitcoin exposure in favor of gold, citing quantum uncertainty as a factor. |
Outlook
While quantum computing still faces significant technical hurdles, its rapid advancement is prompting a re‑evaluation of Bitcoin’s risk profile among analysts and institutional investors. Willy Woo’s recent commentary underscores a growing consensus that quantum‑related uncertainty should be incorporated into long‑term valuation models, especially when comparing Bitcoin to traditional stores of value such as gold. The coming years will likely see continued discussion over technical upgrades, governance decisions regarding vulnerable balances, and how the market balances the promise of quantum‑resistant solutions against the potential for short‑term disruption.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/willy-woo-bitcoin-quantum-risk-gold-lost-coins-post-quantum-upgrade?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
