XRP Indicator Signals Potential Slip Below $1, Analyst Warns
The cryptocurrency has fallen more than 60 % from its 2023 peak, and a Gaussian Channel analysis suggests the down‑trend could deepen to the $0.70‑$1.00 range. Institutional inflows and whale activity, however, may temper the bearish outlook.
Market backdrop
Since reaching an all‑time high of $3.66 in late 2023, XRP has lost roughly 63 % of its value, trading around $1.36 on Wednesday. The slide has pushed the token beneath several technical thresholds that traditionally signal a shift toward further weakness.
Technical scan: Gaussian Channel fractals
XRP’s price action is currently being examined through the monthly Gaussian Channel—a tool that plots a regression‑based upper, middle and lower band to highlight trend direction, support/resistance zones and overbought/oversold conditions.
- Upper band: The token’s last rally has been confined by the upper regression line, now sitting near $1.16. Historically, a breach of this line precedes a correction that drifts toward the middle band.
- Middle band: Positioned around $0.70, this level also acted as a year‑long resistance in 2023‑24. It has not yet been tested as a support floor.
- Lower band: A break below the recent local low of $1.12 (recorded last Friday) would validate a further slide toward the middle band.
Chart analyst “Chart Nerd” noted that prior instances of the pattern typically resulted in three‑to‑four months of decline before the price found a new foundation near the middle band and resumed higher moves.
Alternative view: broader price targets
Another commentator, crypto analyst Crypto Patel, agrees that a dip below the $1 mark is plausible, framing it as an “entry zone” for prospective buyers. Patel highlighted that the token’s 70 % pullback from its peak mirrors a historic 96 % correction observed in 2018 (from $3.28 to $0.105). While such a dramatic crash appears unlikely this time, a corrective dip under $1 remains within the realm of possibility. Patel speculated that the most attractive accumulation window could lie between $0.50 and $0.70.
Additional bearish technical cues
- 200‑week moving average: XRP’s price was recently rejected near the $1.40 level, a key long‑term moving average. The failure to sustain above this line adds weight to the downside narrative.
- Previous fractal patterns: The Gaussian Channel’s lower regression band aligns with historic support zones that have historically been tested during extended bear markets.
Counterbalancing factors: Institutional demand and on‑chain activity
Despite the technical headwinds, several fundamentals suggest lingering buying pressure:
| Indicator | Recent development |
|---|---|
| Spot XRP ETFs | Cumulative net inflows have topped $1 billion, with a five‑day streak of inflows culminating in a $3.26 million addition on Tuesday. |
| Whale accumulation | Transactions exceeding $100 k in XRP surged to a four‑month high of 1,389, indicating that large holders are still adding to positions. |
| Active addresses | The number of unique XRP Ledger addresses spiked to 78,727 within an eight‑hour window – the highest count in six months. |
Trader Levi Rietveld and analytics platform Santiment interpret these metrics as signs of institutional confidence and a possible reversal catalyst. In particular, a sharp rise in active addresses and high‑value transfers are often viewed as precursors to price rebounds in crypto assets.
Outlook
The convergence of technical indicators points to a vulnerable price corridor for XRP, with the $0.70‑$1.00 band representing the next likely support range if the downtrend persists. Nevertheless, robust ETF inflows, whale buying, and a surge in on‑chain activity could provide enough upward pressure to halt or reverse the decline before the token breaches the lower Gaussian Channel band.
Key takeaways
- Technical warning: A Gaussian Channel analysis suggests XRP could slide below $1, targeting the $0.70‑$1.00 zone as the next support level.
- Critical levels: Upper regression band at $1.16; middle band (potential support) near $0.70; 200‑week moving average around $1.40 remains a decisive barrier.
- Institutional flow: Spot XRP ETFs have recorded over $1 billion in net inflows, underscoring continued institutional interest.
- Whale and address activity: High‑value whale transactions and a six‑month high in active addresses signal possible bullish sentiment.
- Risk perspective: While a corrective dip below $1 is plausible, a catastrophic crash akin to the 2018 plunge appears unlikely given current market dynamics.
As always, cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Traders should conduct their own due diligence and consider risk management strategies before making investment decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/xrp-analysts-why-price-drop-below-1-dollar-possible?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
