Bitcoin’s Short‑Term Holder Stress Hits 2018‑Low, Re‑igniting Expectations of a Massive Upswing
On‑chain data from Checkonchain shows the Short‑Term Holder (STH) MVRV Bollinger Band indicator plunging into its deepest oversold zone in nearly eight years – a signal that previously preceded a 1,900 % rally.
What the metric measures
The STH MVRV Bollinger Band tracks the price gap between Bitcoin’s spot market and the average acquisition cost of wallets that have held the cryptocurrency for less than 155 days. By applying Bollinger Bands to this gap, analysts can spot periods when the price is trading far below the recent cost basis of short‑term investors. A breach of the lower band is interpreted as extreme seller exhaustion and has historically aligned with macro‑level market bottoms.
Current reading
According to the latest chart from Checkonchain, the oscillator has slipped beneath the lower statistical band, reaching a level not observed since the descent into the 2018 bear market. This deep‑oversold reading suggests that short‑term holders are largely capitulated, and the market may be approaching a structural floor.
Historical parallels
- Late 2018 – A comparable oversold signal preceded a roughly 150 % price gain within the following year and a cumulative 1,900 % increase over the next three years.
- November 2022 – The same indicator flashed ahead of the low that ultimately triggered a 700 % rally to the then‑record high of about $126,000.
These precedents have led market observers to view the current signal as a potential harbinger of a new multi‑year uptrend.
Supporting market dynamics
- Realized losses among larger short‑term whales have remained relatively modest since Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in October 2025, indicating that the most substantial recent buyers have not yet fully surrendered their positions.
- Sentiment gauges such as MatrixPort’s extreme‑fear index are also pointing to a possible inflection point, with many analysts now considering the market to be at or near a bottom.
- Liquidity tailwinds – Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon, cited by CNBC, argues that unusually large U.S. tax refunds in 2026 could channel up to $150 billion into equities and Bitcoin by the end of March. If realised, this inflow could absorb residual selling pressure, reinforcing the case for a near‑term rebound.
Analyst outlook
Both on‑chain and macro‑level indicators are converging on a narrative of exhausted selling and potential price support. While the data do not constitute a guarantee of a rally, the co‑occurrence of historically bullish signals and upcoming liquidity drivers has prompted several firms to upgrade their short‑term outlook for Bitcoin.
Key takeaways
- STH MVRV Bollinger Band: The metric has entered its deepest oversold region since 2018, signalling extreme short‑term holder capitulation.
- Historical precedent: Similar readings preceded the 2018 and 2022 market bottoms, each of which led to multi‑year rallies exceeding 700 % and, in 2018’s case, 1,900 %.
- Whale behavior: Realised losses among sizable short‑term holders remain limited, suggesting that larger recent entrants have not fully exited.
- Liquidity boost: Anticipated U.S. tax‑refund‑driven inflows could inject up to $150 billion into Bitcoin and equities by March 2026, potentially easing remaining sell pressure.
- Analyst sentiment: Firms such as MatrixPort and Wells Fargo are flagging the current environment as conducive to a bottom, with some forecasting a price bounce before the end of March.
The information presented here is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any trading or investment decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bottom-signal-that-preceded-1900percent-rally-flashes-again?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
