Bitcoin ETFs Log $410 Million in Outflows as Early‑Week Bullish Momentum Fades
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily net redemption since early February, while a downgrade in Standard Chartered’s 2026 price target added to the bearish tone across the crypto‑fund landscape.
Outflows widen and assets under management shrink
Data compiled by analytics firm SoSoValue show that on Thursday U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) suffered net withdrawals of $410.4 million. The figure pushes the cumulative weekly outflows to $375.1 million, marking the second straight week of net redemptions.
If inflows do not rebound on Friday, the sector is poised for a fourth consecutive week of decline. Assets under management (AUM) for the 11 listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen to just under $80 billion, roughly half of the near‑$170 billion peak recorded in October 2025.
The outflow pattern was broad‑based. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the exodus, losing $157.6 million and $104.1 million respectively, according to Farside tracking.
Ether‑focused ETFs were not immune; they posted $113.1 million of net redemptions on the same day, bringing the weekly total to $171.4 million. XRP ETFs saw their first outflows since early February, shedding $6.4 million, while Solana ETFs bucked the trend with a modest $2.7 million inflow.
Analyst downgrade intensifies bearish sentiment
The same day, Standard Chartered trimmed its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $150,000 to $100,000 and warned that the cryptocurrency could slump to $50,000 before any meaningful recovery. The bank’s research also projected Ether to fall to $1,400 in the short term, before reaching a year‑end forecast of $4,000.
Standard Chartered’s outlook aligns with a growing chorus of analysts who view the current price action—Bitcoin hovering around $66,000, briefly dipping to $65,250—as a possible pre‑lude to further downside.
Market‑cycle metrics suggest a “bear” rather than “extreme bear”
Crypto‑analytics platform CryptoQuant released a weekly update that reaffirmed a realized price support level near $55,000, a threshold that has yet to be breached. Its proprietary Bull‑Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the “bear” zone, signalling that the market has not entered the “extreme bear” regime that typically signals the start of a prolonged bottoming phase.
The firm also noted that long‑term holders (LTHs) have not begun to capitulate. Current LTH selling is occurring around breakeven levels, whereas historically, deeper capitulation—losses of 30‑40%—preceded full market resets.
Analysis: What the outflows mean for Bitcoin’s institutional narrative
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Price outlook drives fund flows – The convergence of a softer price target from a major banking institution and the recent dip in Bitcoin’s market price appears to have triggered a wave of redemptions. Institutional investors seem to be adopting a “wait‑and‑see” stance, withdrawing capital until clearer upside signals emerge.
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ETF diversification pressure – While Bitcoin and Ether ETFs are both seeing net outflows, the modest inflow into Solana‑focused ETFs suggests that investors are still searching for niche opportunities within the broader crypto‑ETF universe. Solana’s relative resilience could be tied to its recent network upgrades and strong developer activity, offering an alternative narrative to the market‑wide sell‑off.
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Liquidity considerations – As AUM contracts toward $80 billion, trading volumes in these funds may become more volatile. Smaller liquidity pools can amplify price swings on both the underlying spot market and the ETF units themselves, potentially accelerating future inflow/outflow cycles.
- Potential catalysts for reversal – A sustained rally that pushes Bitcoin back above the $70,000 mark, or a renewed bullish sentiment from influential analysts, could spark a turnaround in week‑long net outflows. Conversely, additional downgrades or macro‑economic headwinds (e.g., tighter monetary policy) could cement the current bearish trajectory.
Key Takeaways
- $410 million net outflow in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday; weekly outflows now at $375 million.
- AUM for Bitcoin ETFs down to ≈$80 billion, half of the October 2025 peak.
- Standard Chartered cuts 2026 Bitcoin target to $100,000 and warns of a possible dip to $50,000.
- BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity Wise Origin lead the fund‑specific withdrawals.
- Ether and XRP ETFs also face outflows; Solana ETFs record a small inflow of $2.7 million.
- CryptoQuant retains a $55,000 support level and keeps the market in a “bear” phase, not an “extreme bear” phase.
- Long‑term holders have not yet shown decisive capitulation, indicating possible resilience if a price rebound materialises.
The next few trading days will be crucial in determining whether the current outflow trend signals a short‑term correction or the onset of a deeper bear market for Bitcoin‑linked investment products. Investors and fund managers alike will be watching price action, analyst commentary, and macro‑economic developments for cues on the next direction of capital flows.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etf-410-million-outflows-standard-chartered-cut-target?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
