Bitcoin’s Downtrend May Not Be Over – $65,000 Could Be the Next Liquidity Magnet
February 4 2026
Quick Takeaways
- Technical patterns on weekly and daily charts point to a deeper correction, with the next major support likely around $60‑$65 K.
- The Puell Multiple, a miner‑revenue indicator, remains in its “discount” zone, suggesting bearish pressure may persist for weeks.
- On‑chain data shows a surge in Bitcoin deposits to Binance, a classic sign of capitulation that could fuel further downside.
1. Chart Signals Point Toward Sub‑$60 K Territory
After briefly rallying to $76,900 on Wednesday—just 4.5 % above the 15‑month trough of $72,860—Bitcoin has begun to re‑test lower resistance levels.
On the weekly chart, the price completed a head‑and‑shoulders (H&S) formation, breaking the neckline around $82,000 on Saturday. The measured move from that pattern projects a target near $52,600, which would represent a 31 % loss from the current price and a 58 % drawdown from Bitcoin’s all‑time high of $126,000.
The daily chart adds to the bearish narrative. A bear flag emerged after the $78,000 support level was breached, and traders are watching the next “liquidity magnet” at roughly $65,500. Should Bitcoin slip below that threshold, the next major support zone lies near $60,000, with some analysts even flagging $40,000 as a possibility in a worst‑case scenario.
Implication: The confluence of an H&S on the weekly timeframe and a bear flag on the daily timeframe suggests that the current rally may be short‑lived, and the market could be primed for a more extended correction.
2. Miner‑Revenue Indicator Remains in Discount Territory
The Puell Multiple, which compares daily mining revenue to its 365‑day average, has stayed in the “discount” zone since the November 2025 price dip. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah notes that the indicator typically lingers in this range for about 200 days; we are now roughly halfway through that period.
A prolonged stay in the discount zone often signals that miners are operating under compressed margins, leading to reduced hash‑rate investment and, in extreme cases, equipment shutdowns. Miner reserve balances have fallen to about 1.8 million BTC, and the total network hash‑rate is down roughly 12 % from its November 2025 peak—the sharpest decline since 2021.
Implication: Weak miner economics can amplify selling pressure, as operators may liquidate reserves to cover operating costs, further dragging the price down.
3. On‑Chain Flow to Binance Raises Red Flags
Glassnode data shows daily Bitcoin inflows to Binance surged to 15,709 BTC on Tuesday, the highest level since November 2025. In the prior two days, between 56,000 and 59,000 BTC were transferred to the exchange, a volume that historically precedes sharp price drops.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost describes the spike as a sign of “capitulation and panic,” suggesting that a large pool of supply is now sitting on the exchange order books. Until that inventory is absorbed, any upside bounce could be quickly negated by sell‑side pressure.
Implication: The growing Binance inventory creates a near‑term ceiling for price recovery, making it harder for Bitcoin to hold above the $74,000 region.
4. What Could Drive Bitcoin to $65,000?
Analysts who track “liquidity magnets” argue that price often stalls temporarily at levels where a sizable amount of on‑chain supply accumulates. The $65,500 zone lines up with:
- The lower bound of the current bear flag on the daily chart.
- A confluence of Fibonacci extensions from the recent high‑low swing (≈$82,000 – $72,860).
- Historical on‑chain inflow spikes that previously triggered similar mid‑range consolidations.
If Bitcoin finds buyers at this level, the market may experience a short‑term stabilization before the next leg of the corrective move. Conversely, failure to hold could accelerate the descent toward the $60,000 support area, and potentially lower.
5. Outlook and Risks
- Macro backdrop: Persistent inflation concerns, tightening monetary policy, and uncertain credit conditions continue to weigh on risk‑on assets, including Bitcoin.
- Funding rates & futures positioning: Short‑term funding rates have turned slightly positive, indicating that leveraged shorts are paying a premium to maintain positions—another bearish sign.
- Potential catalysts: A sudden easing of macro pressures, a major institutional inflow, or a decisive policy shift could provide a bounce, but such events appear unlikely in the near term.
Bottom Line
While Bitcoin managed a brief rebound above $76,000, multiple technical, on‑chain, and miner‑fundamental signals point to a continuation of the downtrend. The $65,000 price region is emerging as the next critical “liquidity magnet.” Traders and investors should monitor that level closely, alongside the health of miner revenues and exchange inflows, to gauge whether the market is heading toward a deeper correction or a temporary pause.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bounces-76k-but-data-suggests-btc-price-downtrend-not-over?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
