New Bitcoin Whale Losses Deepen as Binance Inflows Rise
Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $68,000, but growing pressure on recently‑accumulated large‑holder wallets may fuel the next price correction.
Market backdrop
After a brief rally, Bitcoin has settled in a tight range just under the $68 k psychological barrier. While the level offers short‑term support, the price still sits below several key whale‑related thresholds that could trigger additional downside.
Whale‑segment dynamics
| Segment | BTC held | Realised cost basis | Unrealised P/L* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short‑term whales (1 k‑10 k BTC per address) | ≈1.29 million BTC (≈28 % of the 1k‑10k cohort) | $88,500 | –22 % |
| Long‑term whales (holds >10 k BTC) | ≈3.20 million BTC (≈71 % of the cohort) | $41,600 | +65 % |
*Calculated at current market price of ~$68 k.
Carmelo Alemán of CryptoQuant points out that the 1 k‑10 k BTC bracket now controls roughly 4.5 million BTC in total. The disparity between the two groups’ cost bases has widened: short‑term holders entered at a median price near $88 k, leaving them with a sizeable paper loss, whereas the older cohort entered at about $41 k and remains comfortably in profit.
Despite the drop, short‑term whales have not exhausted their losses since the 2025 all‑time high of $126 k, suggesting they may still have the capacity to endure further price swings. The $41.6 k level, representing the long‑term whales’ break‑even point, continues to act as a structural floor; as long as BTC stays above it, the market is more likely to see a redistribution of coins rather than a wholesale capitulation.
Binance‑centric inflows
The “whale inflow ratio” on Binance—a metric that compares the volume of the ten largest BTC deposits to total inbound flow—rose sharply from 0.40 in early February to 0.62 by mid‑month. This jump signals a growing concentration of large‑scale deposits on the exchange, a pattern often associated with heightened sell‑side activity.
Crypto analyst known as Darkfost linked part of the surge to the so‑called “Hyperunit” wallet, believed to belong to trader Garrett Jin, which moved close to 10 k BTC onto Binance. The influx reinforces the narrative that new large holders, already sitting in loss, are seeking liquidity on the platform.
Profit‑realisation metrics
- SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for long‑term holders slipped to 0.88, indicating that, on average, these coins are being sold at a loss in the short term. The metric’s monthly average remains above 1 (≈1.09), while the 12‑month mean sits near 1.87, implying that the long‑term cohort is still, on balance, profitable.
- NUPL (Net‑Unrealised Profit/Loss), as noted by Joao Wedson of Alphractal, stands at 0.36. Positive NUPL values show that unrealised gains are still dominating, though the figure is well below the peaks seen in previous bull cycles. Historically, the final market bottom in a bear phase has coincided with NUPL turning negative, suggesting that the current level may not yet signal the end of the downtrend for long‑term holders.
Analyst view
Alemán stresses that the widening gap between the two whale groups creates a “pressure cooker” for short‑term participants. If BTC struggles to reclaim higher levels, the loss‑bearing cohort could accelerate selling, adding further weight to the downward momentum. Conversely, the deep profit cushion of the long‑term whales provides a buffer that could stabilise the market if buyers return.
Key takeaways
- Short‑term whale wallets are sitting on an average 22 % unrealised loss at current prices.
- The Binance whale‑inflow ratio climbed to 0.62 from 0.40 over two weeks, indicating an uptick in large‑scale deposits and potential sell‑pressure.
- Long‑term holders control roughly 71 % of the 1 k‑10 k BTC segment and remain in profit, with a realised cost basis near $41.6 k.
- SOPR for long‑term whales dipped below 1 (0.88), but the longer‑term average stays comfortably above 1, signalling ongoing profitability.
- NUPL stays positive at 0.36, yet historical patterns suggest another dip may be needed before a definitive market bottom is confirmed.
Outlook
If Bitcoin manages to sustain its position above the long‑term whales’ break‑even price, the market may see a gradual reallocation of assets rather than a decisive crash. However, the combination of deep unrealised losses among newer large holders and rising Binance inflows could act as a catalyst for further short‑term corrections, especially if the price slips below the $65 k‑$66 k zone where many stop‑losses are likely placed.
Investors should monitor the whale‑inflow ratio, SOPR, and NUPL metrics alongside price action to gauge whether the current consolidation will give way to renewed buying pressure or amplify the existing sell‑side dynamics.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-bitcoin-whales-are-trapped-underwater-but-for-how-long?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
