Bitcoin $60,000 Retest Gains Traction as Options Markets Turn Bearish and ETFs Record Outflows
February 19, 2026
Key takeaways
- Professional traders are paying roughly a 13 % premium for put options versus calls, signalling a strong demand for downside protection.
- The delta‑skew on two‑month Bitcoin options has stayed in the ‑13 % to ‑6 % band for four weeks, well outside the typical neutral range of ‑6 % to +6 %.
- U.S.‑listed Bitcoin ETFs have seen $910 million of net outflows since Feb. 11, a stark contrast to the $53 billion of cumulative inflows they have gathered since inception.
- Stablecoins in the China‑U.S. corridor are trading at a 0.2 % discount to the USD/CNY rate, hinting at modest but still‑present pressure on crypto liquidity.
- Despite a resilient equity market and gold rally, Bitcoin’s price action remains tethered to the $60 k support level that was tested on Feb. 6.
Market backdrop
Bitcoin (BTC) stumbled after a failed push toward the $71,000 region on Sunday, eventually settling back below the $66,000 threshold it had defended throughout the week. While the broader financial landscape has stayed buoyant—S&P 500 futures float just 2 % shy of their record high and gold has climbed to just under $5,000 per ounce—crypto‑specific metrics are painting a markedly more cautious picture.
Options market signals a shift toward protection
Data from Deribit, compiled by analytics firm Laevitas, show that traders are willing to pay a 13 % higher premium for puts relative to calls. Under neutral market conditions the delta‑skew—a gauge of the relative weighting between puts and calls—normally hovers between –6 % and +6 %. The sustained skew in the ‑13 % to ‑6 % bracket over the past month indicates that professional participants are deliberately tilting toward bearish or hedged positions.
The most popular strategies in the last 48 hours reinforce this stance:
| Strategy | Rationale |
|---|---|
| Bear diagonal spread | Reduces cost of a bearish view by using a short‑dated option that decays faster. |
| Short straddle | Profits from a flat‑line market; gains when BTC stays near the strike as both options erode. |
| Short risk reversal | Captures upside from a price drop with little upfront outlay, but carries unlimited risk if BTC rallies sharply. |
Collectively, these bets suggest market participants expect either a sideways bounce or a further slide toward the $60,000 zone, rather than a swift rebound.
ETF outflows underscore institutional hesitancy
Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) have traditionally served as a barometer for institutional appetite. Since the start of the month, U.S.‑listed Bitcoin ETFs have shed $910 million in net assets, according to Farside Investors’ flow data. The outflows come at a time when the broader equity and commodity markets remain strong, implying that risk aversion is confined largely to the crypto sector.
Even though the sector still enjoys $53 billion of cumulative net inflows since the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs, the recent reversal could dampen the momentum that had been buoyed by earlier inflow surges.
Stablecoin dynamics add nuance
China’s stablecoin market, often used as an early warning system for capital flight, is trading at a 0.2 % discount to the prevailing USD/CNY rate. In a neutral environment, stablecoins usually sit at a modest 0.5 %–1 % premium to offset FX conversion costs and regulatory frictions. The current discount, while less severe than the 1.4 % seen earlier in the week, still signals modest pressure and hints that Chinese investors remain watchful.
What the $60,000 level means for Bitcoin
The $60,200 trough recorded on Feb. 6 still looms as a psychological and technical barrier. If BTC manages to hold above this floor, it could pave the way for a gradual re‑test of the $66,000 support area, which has acted as a price “magnet” in recent sessions. Conversely, a breach would likely trigger further downside pressure, especially given the prevailing protective positioning in the options market and the fresh outflows from ETFs.
Analysts caution that the current sentiment reflects “fear of the unknown” rather than a clear macro‑fundamental catalyst. Until a tangible driver—be it a regulatory development, a macroeconomic data release, or a shift in institutional demand—emerges, the market appears poised to oscillate between tentative recovery attempts and defensive positioning.
Outlook
- Short‑term: Expect heightened volatility around the $60k–$66k corridor as traders test the resilience of support while keeping protective spreads alive.
- Medium‑term: Continued ETF outflows could erode the institutional cushion that has helped Bitcoin stay above $65k in the past. A reversal in flows would be a positive signal for price stability.
- Long‑term: The juxtaposition of a strong equity market, a rising gold price, and a cautious crypto sector suggests that Bitcoin’s next major leg up will likely need a catalyst outside of pure market sentiment—perhaps a new regulatory framework or broader adoption in payment ecosystems.
The information presented herein is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-options-market-structure-leans-toward-60k-retest-in-february?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
