Crypto Markets Rally After Softer‑Than‑Expected US Inflation Report
Friday, 13 Feb 2026 – Global crypto assets gained roughly 5 % in a single day, pushing total market capitalisation to about $2.44 trillion. The rally was led by Bitcoin and Ethereum, but analysts warn that risk appetite remains tentative.
Market Overview
- Total market value: Up just under 5 % in the last 24 hours, reaching $2.44 trillion.
- Bitcoin (BTC): Re‑entered the $69,000 threshold, advancing around 4.5 % on the day and posting a modest 1.7 % weekly gain.
- Ethereum (ETH): Surpassed $2,000 again, climbing about 7.5 % and posting a 4.4 % increase for the week.
- Other large caps: Binance Coin (BNB) recorded a modest 1.7 % rise, while the only top‑10 token in negative territory, Figure HELOC, slipped less than 1 %.
The bounce came after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a consumer‑price‑index (CPI) report that showed headline inflation of 2.4 % year‑over‑year for January—slightly below the 2.5 % consensus estimate. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) matched the 2.5 % forecast.
Sentiment and Leverage
Even with the price uplift, market sentiment is described as “fragile.”
- Unrealised profit/loss metric: Glassnode’s on‑chain data placed Bitcoin’s net unrealised profit/loss back into the “hope/fear” band at roughly 0.18, signalling thin profit buffers that could turn volatile quickly.
- Risk‑off tone: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index lingered in the “extreme fear” zone, although it showed a marginal improvement following the previous day’s dip.
- Leverage caution: Senior market‑maker Paul Howard (Wincent) highlighted lingering wariness from the October 10, 2025 crash that erased nearly $20 billion of leveraged positions. He emphasized the need for disciplined leverage and vigilant risk management, especially as liquidity can tighten on short notice.
Movers in the Top‑100
- Biggest gainers: Pi Network (PI) jumped about 10 %, while Midnight (NIGHT) gained roughly 9 %.
- Largest decliner: World Liberty Financial (WLFI) was the worst performer among large‑cap assets, down roughly 2.3 %.
Liquidations and ETF Flows
- Trader liquidations: CoinGlass reports that close to 90,640 traders were liquidated in the past day, wiping out an estimated $260 million in positions. Bitcoin accounted for $118.2 million of those losses, with Ethereum responsible for $56 million.
- ETF activity: Spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered net outflows of about $410 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $113 million, according to SoSoValue data.
Macro Context
The softer‑than‑expected CPI reading temporarily eased inflation concerns, providing a short‑term boost to risk‑on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Nonetheless, the broader macro‑environment remains uncertain:
- Interest‑rate outlook: The modest inflation miss may give the Federal Reserve some latitude, but policy decisions will still hinge on a range of economic indicators.
- Liquidity constraints: Recent ETF outflows suggest that institutional capital is still cautious, potentially limiting the upside of the rally.
Key Takeaways
| Point | Implication |
|---|---|
| Crypto market cap up ~5 % | Short‑term optimism driven by softer US inflation data. |
| Bitcoin & Ethereum lead gains | Strong price action could reignite retail interest, but may be short‑lived. |
| Sentiment still in “extreme fear” | Market remains sensitive to adverse news; downside moves could be swift. |
| High liquidation volume | Significant number of leveraged traders were forced out, highlighting risk of leverage. |
| ETF net outflows | Institutional demand for spot crypto exposure remains muted. |
| Inflation data below forecast | May reduce pressure on central banks, but overall macro uncertainty persists. |
While the inflation surprise gave crypto a brief lift, analysts stress that the recovery is built on a narrow base. Traders and investors are advised to monitor on‑chain profit metrics, leverage levels, and macro‑policy cues closely, as any shift could quickly reverse the current rally.
Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/crypto-markets-rally-after-softer-than-expected-us-inflation-report
