Ether May Retest $2.5 K Soon If the Emerging “Adam‑and‑Eve” Pattern Holds
By Cointelegraph Staff – February 2026
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), began the week under pressure, slipping below the psychologically significant $2 000 threshold and logging a roughly 20 % monthly decline for February. Despite the price weakness, on‑chain metrics and derivatives data point to a strengthening foundation that could fuel a renewed rally, potentially propelling ETH back toward the $2.5 K level.
Key Takeaways
- Accumulation on‑chain: More than 2.5 million ETH moved into “accumulation” wallets during February, lifting the total held by these addresses to 26.7 million ETH – up from 22 million at the start of 2026.
- Higher network activity, lower fees: Weekly transaction volume reached a record 17.3 million, while the median gas price fell to $0.008, a 3 000‑fold drop from the 2021 peak.
- Derivatives pressure: Global ETH open interest has retreated to $11.2 billion from the $30 billion peak seen in August 2025, yet the estimated leverage ratio remains elevated (~0.7).
- Liquidation hotspots: Short‑position clusters sit just above $2 200, whereas long‑position clusters are concentrated near $1 800, indicating a potential squeeze to the upside if prices break higher.
Accumulation Gains Momentum While Price Slides
Even as ETH traded below $2 000, long‑term holders continued to amass the asset. Data from CryptoQuant shows that accumulation‑address balances grew by over 2.5 million ETH in February, bringing total holdings to 26.7 million ETH. This reflects a net inflow of roughly 12 % of the addresses’ supply base during a period of price weakness.
Market veteran Michaël van de Poppe (MN Capital) highlighted that ETH’s valuation relative to silver has hit a historic low, framing the current dip as a classic “buy‑the‑dip” environment for patient investors. The metric underscores a broader narrative: a diminished price may be attracting capital that anticipates a longer‑term upside.
Staked Supply Reduces Liquid Tokens
Approximately 30 % of Ethereum’s circulating supply (around 37.2 million ETH) is currently staked, effectively lowering the amount of ETH available on spot markets. The high staking ratio, together with the accumulation trend, points to a tightening supply dynamic that could magnify price moves when demand rises.
Network Usage Improves at a Fraction of Historical Costs
The Ethereum network posted an all‑time high of 17.3 million transactions in the past week. Yet the median transaction fee has collapsed to $0.008—roughly 0.03 % of the $25 median fee observed during the 2021 surge. This dramatic cost reduction signals a more efficient usage environment and could attract additional developers and users to the platform.
Leon Waidmann, head of research at Lisk, contrasted the current usage pattern with the 2021 peak, noting that similar transaction volumes now occur at dramatically lower fees, a development that could underpin sustained network activity.
Technical Outlook: The “Adam‑and‑Eve” Bottom
On the four‑hour chart, ETH is forming what analysts describe as an “Adam‑and‑Eve” bottom—a bullish reversal pattern that begins with a sharp, V‑shaped decline (the “Adam”) followed by a more gradual, rounded consolidation (the “Eve”). The first leg of the pattern represents a rapid sell‑off that quickly finds buying interest; the second leg reflects a period of lower volatility as buyers accumulate.
If ETH can break above the $2 150 neckline that caps the “Eve” phase, the measured‑move projection suggests a target zone between $2 473 and $2 634. The downside breach point lies around $1 909, which aligns with a dense liquidity pool of short positions.
Derivatives Landscape
Open interest for ETH futures has contracted to $11.2 billion, a sizable retreat from the $30 billion high earlier this year. Nonetheless, the estimated leverage ratio remains elevated at roughly 0.7, indicating that a sizable share of market participants still hold leveraged exposures. Hyblock data shows that 73 % of global futures accounts on Binance are net long on ETH, underscoring a prevailing bullish bias.
Liquidation heatmaps from CoinGlass reveal more than $2 billion of short positions clustered just above $2 200, whereas long liquidations total about $1 billion around $1 800. The imbalance hints at a potential short‑covering rally if the price pierces the $2 150 resistance.
Outlook: Could ETH Retest $2.5 K?
The convergence of on‑chain accumulation, rising network activity at low cost, and a promising technical pattern sets the stage for a potential upside break. Market participants should monitor three key levels:
- $2 150 – Neckline of the Adam‑and‑Eve formation; a clean close above this could trigger the measured‑move projection.
- $2 200–$2 250 – Zone where short‑position liquidations are dense; price pressure here may accelerate a breakout.
- $2 473–$2 634 – Projected target range if the pattern completes, offering a retest of the $2.5 K level.
Conversely, failure to hold above $1 909 would invalidate the pattern and could see ETH resume its decline toward lower support zones.
Bottom Line
While Ether’s price has dipped below a major psychological barrier, the underlying fundamentals—robust accumulation, high staking ratios, record‑level transaction volumes, and dramatically lower fees—paint a picture of a network gaining resilience. Coupled with a textbook bullish reversal pattern and a derivatives market primed for a short squeeze, many analysts see a realistic path for ETH to retest the $2.5 K region in the near term.
The information presented here is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth-chart-pattern-projects-rally-to-dollar2-5k-if-key-conditions-are-met-data?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
