XRP May Have Found a Generational Low at $1.12 – Are the Bulls Poised for a Come‑Back?
February 18, 2026
XRP’s price chart has drawn renewed attention after the digital asset rallied more than 50 % from a 15‑month trough of $1.12 recorded on 6 February. The token now trades around $1.43, still far off its multi‑year peak of $3.66, but a cluster of technical, on‑chain and exchange‑product signals suggest the recent dip could represent a firm bottom rather than a temporary pause.
Four Data Points Highlighting a Potential Bottom
| # | Indicator | What It Shows | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exchange‑listed supply | The amount of XRP held on centralized exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in five years. | Fewer coins sitting on venues where they can be sold instantly reduces immediate downward pressure and points to a shift toward self‑custody or long‑term holding. |
| 2 | On‑chain activity | Recent weeks have seen a modest uptick in daily active addresses and transaction volume, reversing a slight decline observed through December 2025. | Growing usage signals renewed interest from the network’s community and can act as a leading indicator of price support. |
| 3 | Exchange‑traded products (ETPs) flow | Futures and ETFs linked to XRP have recorded net inflows for the third consecutive week, with open interest rising by roughly 12 % since early January. | Institutional‑grade products often capture the sentiment of larger, more regulated investors; net inflows suggest a growing appetite for exposure. |
| 4 | Technical rebound | After bottoming at $1.12, XRP broke above its 20‑day moving average and formed a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, pushing the price to $1.67 earlier this month. | Technical breakouts from key moving averages and pattern confirmations are commonly used by traders to gauge the start of a sustained uptrend. |
Collectively, these metrics paint a picture of a market that is stabilising after a protracted correction. While none of the data points alone guarantees a rally, together they reduce the probability that the $1.12 level was merely a temporary dip.
What the Numbers Mean for Market Participants
Reduced Selling Pressure – The five‑year low in exchange‑held XRP suggests that a sizable share of holders are moving their assets off‑exchange, possibly into hardware wallets or custodial solutions. This behaviour typically reflects a longer‑term outlook and removes a large source of immediate sell‑side liquidity that can exacerbate price drops.
Increasing On‑Chain Engagement – The modest rise in active addresses and transaction counts aligns with the broader narrative of renewed interest in the Ripple ecosystem, especially after the recent settlement of several regulatory disputes. More frequent usage can help sustain price levels by creating a feedback loop of demand for the token to settle payments and settle contracts.
Institutional‑Grade Sentiment – The net inflow into XRP‑linked ETPs indicates that institutional investors are either re‑entering the market or taking fresh positions. Because these products are subject to stricter compliance requirements, their participation is often viewed as a vote of confidence in the token’s regulatory clarity.
Technical Confirmation – Breaking above the 20‑day moving average and forming classic bullish candlestick patterns are traditional technical signals that many traders use to trigger long positions. The move to $1.67, a 50 % gain from the trough, shows that price momentum is capable of overcoming the recent resistance zone near $1.20.
Risks and Counter‑Arguments
Despite the encouraging signs, several headwinds remain:
- Macro‑economic backdrop – Global risk‑off sentiment driven by inflation concerns and central‑bank policy tightening could limit risk‑appetite for crypto assets, including XRP.
- Regulatory uncertainty – While recent legal developments have been favourable for Ripple, any reversal or new enforcement action could quickly erode confidence.
- Price proximity to resistance – The token now sits just below the $1.50‑$1.55 range, a level where prior sell‑walls have emerged. A failure to breach this zone could trigger a short‑term correction.
Key Takeaways
- Exchange supply at a five‑year low points to reduced short‑term sell pressure as holders move XRP to self‑custody.
- On‑chain metrics are turning positive, with a rise in active addresses and transaction volume suggesting growing network usage.
- ETP inflows signal renewed institutional interest, adding a layer of credibility to the price recovery narrative.
- Technical indicators have turned bullish, with a break above the 20‑day moving average and a bullish engulfing pattern supporting the case for a sustained uptrend.
Outlook
If the current trajectory holds, XRP could aim for the $1.60‑$1.70 corridor in the coming weeks, potentially testing the psychological $1.75 barrier before setting sights on the $2.00 level—a milestone that would represent a 78 % upside from the $1.12 low. Conversely, a resurgence of macro‑economic stress or adverse regulatory news could see the token retest the $1.12 floor.
For traders and investors, the consensus emerging from the four data points is cautiously optimistic: the most recent dip appears to have absorbed a large portion of the downside risk, and the market is now primed for a gradual, albeit measured, rally. As always, participants should weigh the signals against broader market conditions and maintain disciplined risk‑management practices.
The analysis above reflects publicly available data as of 18 February 2026 and does not constitute financial advice.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/4-data-points-suggest-xrp-price-bottomed-at-dollar1-12-are-bulls-ready-to-take-over?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
