Four Sub‑$60,000 Levels Mark Bitcoin’s Emerging Bottom – A Roadmap for the Next Move
February 19 2026
Bitcoin’s price has been trading in a tightening range after a steep decline that pushed the spot price just above the $58,000 mark. On‑chain analysts now point to four realized‑price thresholds below $60,000 that could act as a “floor” for the cryptocurrency, framing a roadmap that will guide the next leg of the bearish swing.
On‑chain support levels: what they represent
Realized price is an on‑chain metric that reflects the average cost basis of a particular slice of the Bitcoin supply. When a coin moves, the realized price of the coins it carries is updated to the price at which the most recent transaction occurred. Because large clusters of Bitcoin tend to cluster around their historic purchase levels, realized‑price zones often become natural support or resistance zones.
Burak Kesmeci, a contributor to CryptoQuant, highlighted four such zones in a recent “Quicktake” post:
| Level | Description | Approx. price |
|---|---|---|
| New Whales’ cost basis | Aggregate entry price of the most recent wave of large‑scale buyers | $88,700 |
| Binance UDA RP | Realized price of BTC held in deposit addresses on Binance, a major global exchange | $58,700 |
| Overall Bitcoin RP | Weighted average cost basis for the entire circulating supply | $54,700 |
| Old Whales’ RP | Cost basis of an earlier cohort of large holders | $41,600 |
Kesmeci explains that once Bitcoin falls below the “new whales” threshold, it historically seeks the next realized‑price level for support. In the current cycle, the nearest barrier is the $58,700 Binance deposit‑address level, followed by the broader $54,700 floor.
Realized losses echo the 2022 bear market
While the panic‑selling wave that drove Bitcoin to a $59,000 trough in early February has largely subsided, on‑chain data continues to show a high degree of capitulation:
- Unrealized‑loss ratio: 46 % of the total Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss, the highest proportion seen since the close of the 2022 bear market.
- Realized‑loss volume: On 5 February, realized losses peaked at roughly 30,000 BTC. Although this figure is well below the 80,000–92,000 BTC losses recorded during the 2022 downturn, it still signals a significant sell‑off among holders.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that the speed at which the loss ratio has risen is unusual, underscoring the depth of the current correction.
Market sentiment and price dynamics
After the brief rebound that lifted Bitcoin back above $59,000, the market has entered a consolidation phase. Traders on the Binance exchange – where a sizable portion of the supply sits in custodial deposit addresses – are now a focal point. The “Binance UDA RP” level at $58,700 is essentially the cost basis for those deposits and therefore functions as a key psychological barrier.
If Bitcoin manages to hold above $58,700, the next test could be the broader $54,700 realized‑price floor. A breach of either level would likely open the path toward the older‑whales zone around $41,600, a depth not seen since the 2022 market bottom.
Analyst takeaways
- Support hierarchy: The strongest on‑chain support is currently the Binance deposit‑address realized price ($58.7 k). The overall realized price ($54.7 k) acts as a secondary cushion, with the older‑whales level ($41.6 k) serving as a potential long‑term floor.
- Risk of further capitulation: The high unrealized‑loss ratio and rising realized‑loss volumes suggest that additional downside pressure remains plausible, especially if the $58.7 k barrier is breached.
- Potential upside catalyst: A decisive hold above $58,700 could trigger short‑term buying from traders seeking to lock in gains before a possible bounce, temporarily stabilizing the market.
Key takeaways
- Four on‑chain price levels—$58.7 k (Binance UDA RP), $54.7 k (overall RP), $41.6 k (old whales RP) and the $88.7 k “new whales” cost basis—outline the roadmap for Bitcoin’s bottom.
- Realized‑price zones act as natural support because they reflect the aggregate purchase price of large holder cohorts.
- Unrealized‑loss ratio at 46 % marks the highest stress level since the end of the 2022 bear market, indicating lingering capitulation risk.
- If Bitcoin stays above $58.7 k, the next significant test will be the $54.7 k tier; a break below could open a move toward the $41.6 k floor.
- Traders should monitor Binance deposit‑address activity, as the exchange’s cost‑basis level is currently the most immediate barrier.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-roadmap-to-bottom-says-58-7k-binance-cost-basis-now-crucial?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
