Bitcoin’s Next Move May Be Tied to U.S. Credit‑Market Dynamics
February 4 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $73,000 mark on Tuesday, echoing a broader bout of macro‑economic strain that has been simmering beneath an already volatile market backdrop. New data on U.S. credit conditions—particularly a historically low corporate option‑adjusted spread—and persistent pressures from a $38.5 trillion sovereign debt load suggest that the digital‑currency’s price trajectory could be shaped as much by bond markets as by on‑chain activity in the months ahead.
Credit spreads signal under‑priced risk
The ICE BofA US Corporate Option‑Adjusted Spread, a gauge of the extra yield investors demand for corporate bonds versus Treasuries, fell to 0.75 percentage points, the narrowest reading since 1998. A compressed spread typically indicates that credit risk is being undervalued, a situation that can reverse quickly if borrowing costs rise or economic stress intensifies.
At the same time, the 10‑year Treasury yield has settled at 4.28 percent after briefly slipping below 4 percent in late 2023. The combination of tight yields and a staggering national debt figure keeps financial conditions restrictive, a mix that analysts say could pressure corporate spreads upward in the near term.
“When we see the credit spread start to widen, history tells us Bitcoin often finds a local bottom a few months later,” said Joao Wedson, founder of analytics firm Alphractal. “If liquidity tightens, we may see an accumulation phase before broader market stress becomes obvious.”
Historical cycles—in 2018, 2020, and 2022—showed that Bitcoin’s lowest points tended to lag three to six months behind the first widening of credit spreads, rather than coinciding with an immediate market reaction.
Whale activity and on‑chain metrics
On‑chain data highlight a modest uptick in short‑term selling pressure. Crypto‑analytics provider CryptoQuant reported that both “whale” wallets (those holding 1,000 BTC or more) and mid‑term holders transferred roughly 5,000 BTC to Binance on Monday, echoing a similar surge seen in December. Holders in the six‑to‑12‑month bucket also moved a comparable amount, marking the largest inflow from that cohort since early 2024.
Nevertheless, broader profit‑taking appears to be waning. The spent‑output‑profit‑ratio (SOPR), which measures the profitability of Bitcoin’s realized transactions, has drifted toward 1.0—the lowest level in a year—as the price hovered near a year‑to‑date low of about $73,900. A SOPR at unity suggests sellers are no longer extracting substantial gains, hinting at a potential exhaustion of long‑term selling pressure.
What the next few months could hold
Analysts project that rising Treasury yields may start to test corporate credit markets, potentially pushing the ICE BofA spread into a 1.5 %–2 % band by April. If that materialises, the same credit‑stress‑to‑Bitcoin‑bottom pattern observed in earlier cycles could repeat, offering an “accumulation window” from roughly July onward and extending into the latter half of 2026.
Key factors to watch:
| Factor | Current Reading | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| ICE BofA Corporate OAS | 0.75 % (lowest since 1998) | Under‑priced risk; widening could precede Bitcoin bottom |
| U.S. Debt | $38.5 T (Jan 2026) | High debt levels keep financing conditions tight |
| 10‑yr Treasury Yield | 4.28 % | Elevated yields may squeeze credit spreads |
| Whale inflows to exchanges | ~5,000 BTC/week (large‑holder) | Short‑term selling pressure, but not decisive |
| SOPR | ~1.00 | Indicates diminishing profit‑taking, possible seller fatigue |
Analyst takeaways
- Credit market stress may become the next catalyst for Bitcoin. A sustained rise in corporate spreads could create a favorable risk‑on environment for the cryptocurrency, mirroring past cycles.
- Current whale activity is notable but not alarming. While large holders have moved BTC onto exchanges, the lack of aggressive profit‑taking suggests the market is not in panic mode.
- SOPR near 1 signals a possible turning point. With realized profits shrinking, long‑term holders may be less inclined to off‑load, supporting a floor for prices.
- Liquidity tightening could set the stage for accumulation later in the year. If credit spreads broaden as Treasury yields stay high, Bitcoin may experience a buying phase after mid‑2026.
Investors should monitor both the credit spread trajectory and on‑chain fundamentals rather than relying on price movements alone. As the interplay between sovereign debt, corporate financing conditions, and digital‑asset sentiment deepens, Bitcoin’s next major price move may be less about chart patterns and more about the health of the U.S. bond market.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/next-bitcoin-accumulation-phase-may-hinge-on-credit-stress-timing-data?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
