Bitcoin Price Calls Are Fading – A Sign of Market Maturity, Says Santiment
February 21 2026
The exuberant optimism that has been driving retail‑focused “to the moon” narratives around Bitcoin appears to be waning. Santiment, a blockchain‑analytics firm that tracks on‑chain and social‑media sentiment, reported on Friday that the frequency of public calls for Bitcoin to breach new all‑time‑high levels has noticeably declined. While some high‑profile voices continue to project bullish price targets, the broader market mood is shifting toward a more measured stance.
Diminishing “Lambo” Calls
Santiment’s weekly overview highlighted a sharp drop in the number of social‑media posts, forum threads and influencer predictions that Bitcoin will surge to ranges such as $150 k–$200 k, $50 k–$100 k, or even $250 k. The firm interprets this contraction of fear‑of‑missing‑out (FOMO) chatter as a healthy correction that suggests retail enthusiasm is cooling.
“The reduction in hype‑driven memes and lofty price forecasts indicates a more balanced market environment,” the report noted.
Sentiment Moves Toward Neutral
When measuring the ratio of bullish versus bearish comments across platforms, Santiment observed that Bitcoin’s sentiment has risen from a state of “extreme bearishness” to roughly “neutral.” The shift makes it harder for traders to rely on sentiment swings as a decisive edge.
Santiment cautioned:
“In such neutral conditions, it may be prudent to either stay out of the market or give less weight to sentiment metrics in your trading models.”
Price Action: From Peaks to Pull‑Backs
- Late‑2025 rally: Bitcoin climbed to a peak of $126,100 in October, spurred by optimistic commentary from figures like BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee, who have floated targets as high as $250,000 for 2025.
- Downtrend: The rally gave way to a sustained decline, leaving Bitcoin lower at year‑end than it started.
- Early 2026: The cryptocurrency fell to just under $60,000 on February 6 before stabilising around $67,850 at the time of writing.
- 30‑day performance: Over the past month, Bitcoin has slipped ≈24 %, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Fear & Greed Index Remains in “Extreme Fear”
Despite the sentiment move toward neutrality, the broader crypto market continues to display caution. The Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which aggregates price volatility, market momentum and social sentiment, posted a score of 8 on Saturday—still firmly in the “Extreme Fear” band.
On‑Chain Activity Signals Dormancy
Santiment also flagged a series of declining on‑chain metrics:
| Metric | Recent Trend |
|---|---|
| Transaction volume | Steady decrease |
| Active addresses | Downward trend |
| Network growth (new accounts) | Slowing |
These figures suggest that the Bitcoin network is being utilized less frequently. While not an immediate bearish signal, the reduced activity implies that many participants may be adopting a “wait‑and‑see” approach rather than actively trading.
Analysis
The waning of bullish hype does not necessarily equate to a reversal of Bitcoin’s long‑term trajectory, but it does point to a maturation of market sentiment. Retail investors appear less prone to speculative spikes, which could lead to a more stable price environment. Conversely, the persistence of “Extreme Fear” in the Fear & Greed Index signals that broader crypto investors remain risk‑averse, potentially limiting upside momentum.
On‑chain inactivity may also be a double‑edged sword: lower transaction volume can reduce network fees and hinder short‑term price support, yet it can reflect a shift toward long‑term holding (HODLing) as investors wait for clearer macro signals.
Key Takeaways
- Calls for ultra‑high Bitcoin price targets are declining, indicating a cooling of retail FOMO.
- Sentiment has moved to neutral, making sentiment‑based trading strategies less reliable.
- Bitcoin’s price is down ~24 % over the past 30 days, hovering near $68 k after a dip to $60 k.
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “Extreme Fear,” underscoring continued market caution.
- On‑chain activity (transactions, active addresses, network growth) is falling, suggesting reduced short‑term trading interest.
Investors should monitor both sentiment shifts and on‑chain metrics, as the convergence of a calmer retail outlook with lingering market fear could set the stage for a period of consolidation before any decisive directional move emerges.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-retail-user-healthy-crypto-indicator-santiment?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
