Bitcoin Still Searching for a Bottom, Polymarket Shows Mixed Hope
February 13 2026 – The cryptocurrency market remains volatile as the price of Bitcoin slides below its recent highs and sentiment indicators point to extreme caution. Veteran trader Peter Brandt now believes the long‑awaited bottom has not yet materialised, while prediction‑market platform Polymarket reveals a divided view among bettors on short‑term recovery prospects.
Brandt’s Revised Timeline
Brandt, who earlier projected a third‑quarter 2026 trough around $60 000, argues that the true bottom may not arrive until October 2026. He notes that Bitcoin’s recent dip to roughly $62 700 on 6 February still leaves room for further downside, possibly testing the high‑$50 000 range.
“The cyclic, almost parabolic, price pattern of Bitcoin cannot keep moving in such a predictable way,” Brandt said in a recent interview with Cointelegraph Magazine. “A surprise is inevitable before the market finally settles.”
The trader adds that, in the near term, price action could be choppy, with intermittent upward moves that may be quickly erased by renewed selling pressure.
Market Sentiment: Bearish Yet Potentially Bullish
Data from crypto‑analytics firm Santiment indicate that the overall crowd mood has turned “fiercely bearish.” Their social‑media tracking shows a collapse in the bullish‑to‑bearish comment ratio, echoing the broader market’s anxiety.
Despite the gloom, Santiment points out that historically, deep pessimism often precedes a market bottom. “When the majority is convinced prices will fall further, it can become a prime entry point for long positions,” the firm’s analysts wrote.
Supporting this view, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index logged an “extreme fear” reading of 9 on Friday, the lowest level since mid‑2022. Conversely, the Altcoin Season Index reflected a modest “Bitcoin Season” score of 28/100, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently outperforming most of the top 100 altcoins.
Prediction‑Market Odds Paint a Split Picture
Polymarket’s betting markets provide a quantifiable glimpse of trader expectations:
| Event (Feb 2026) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin closes the month below $60 000 | 41 % |
| Bitcoin reaches $75 000 by month‑end | 29 % |
| Bitcoin hits $120 000 at any point in 2026 | 23 % |
| Bitcoin surpasses $150 000 in 2026 | 10 % |
Long‑term odds also suggest modest confidence in a strong rebound: the highest‑bet odds for the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 point to December (21 %), while the market largely rules out a second‑half‑year surge.
Ether’s Sideways Drift
Ether (ETH) has not escaped the market’s broader malaise. Trading near $1 940, the cryptocurrency is down 41 % over the past 30 days. BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes expects ETH to “chop” around the $2 000 level until broader USD liquidity improves.
Nonetheless, other analysts see upside potential. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, highlighted a 200 % surge in stable‑coin transactions over the last 18 months as a catalyst for ETH demand, calling it “the best opportunity to look at Ethereum right now.”
Prediction‑market participants assign a 23 % chance of ETH falling to $1 600 and a 76 % chance of a dip to $1 500 at some point in 2026, reflecting continued uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
- Bottom Still Uncertain: Peter Brandt now targets an October 2026 bottom for Bitcoin, suggesting further downside beyond the current $62 k level.
- Bearish Sentiment, Potential Bull Signal: Market mood is extremely negative, but historical patterns imply that such sentiment can precede a rally.
- Mixed Odds on Polymarket: While a sizable minority sees a sub‑$60 k close for February, another sizable slice believes a bounce to $75 k is plausible; longer‑term optimism remains modest.
- Ethereum Likely to Remain Range‑Bound: ETH is expected to trade sideways around $2 k in the short term, with some analysts pointing to underlying demand fundamentals.
- Risk Management Required: Extreme‑fear readings and a low Altcoin Season index suggest investors should exercise caution, but also keep an eye on entry opportunities if sentiment deepens further.
Investors and traders should monitor both on‑chain liquidity metrics and sentiment indicators, as they may provide early warning signs of a market pivot either toward a prolonged correction or the start of a new upward cycle.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-price-prediction-peter-brandt-arthur-hayes-ethereum-trade-secrets/?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
